Most on Wall Street should expect to see much lower year-end incentive payouts, compared to 2010, which is the second time in four years this has occurred, according to a yearly compensation analysis by Johnson Associates Inc., a New York-based compensation consulting firm. 

During 2008's economic crisis, year-end incentives significantly fell but then recovered the last two years.

"This year started with great promise for a banner year on Wall Street, but hopes for larger bonuses faded over the summer and continue to dim as we approach year end," says Alan Johnson, managing director of Johnson Associates. "The lack of economic recovery, combined with ongoing uncertainty in the world markets and global and regional regulation are driving most financial services firms to significantly reduce the size of their bonus pools. As a result, most but not all professionals will receive smaller payouts this year."