The New Year rings in two traditional lists. “Resolutions”entail too much work for many. On the other hand, “predictions”often prove entertaining twice, once upon the original reading andagain 12 months later as the author eats humble pie. No sooner thanthe ball falls in Times Square than do budding Nostradamuses risefrom the shadows of Auld Lang Syne and begin opining on theimmediate future of their chosen fields.

Thus do I fearlessly embark on this list of three Sure-Fire 401kPredictions for 2012:

1) By the end of the first quarter, we’ll havetwo competing regulatory versions of the Fiduciary Standard (bothof which will compete with a third legal version of “fiduciary”).The SEC will soon pronounce a Fiduciary Standard representingneither a true meaning of fiduciary nor a true standardization.Nearly all will complain. Around the same time, the Department ofLabor will reissue its new Fiduciary Rule, which will satisfy mostsave for the most conflicted service providers and the strictestadherents of fiduciary law. Speaking of law, neither regulator willhonor or recognize eight centuries of tradition and trust law andboth will continue to permit what trust law would normally declarea “prohibited self-dealing” transaction.

2) April’s implementation of the DOL’s new FeeDisclosure Rule will create a bigger headache for 401(k) plansponsors than for 401(k) service providers. Of course, theimplied prediction here – that self-serving 401(k) serviceproviders won’t yet again convince the DOL to defer implementationof this rule – stands as the bolder prophecy. Still, assuming401(k) investors start seeing the actual fees they paysometime in the second quarter, expect to witness the greatest caseof collective sticker shock ever. And who will they turn to withtheir complaints? Their 401(k) plan sponsor’s friendly HRdepartment. When in doubt, shoot the messenger. And who will themessenger shoot?

3) By the end of the year, bundled serviceproviders’ fees will be dropping dramatically. But it may be toolate for them. After decades of hidden fees and avoiding the“fiduciary” label, 2012 finally catches up to them and exposes theself-dealing behind the curtain. Lowering fees can’t make up forthe loss of trust and reputation, as 401(k) plan sponsorsmove en mass away from the bundled model and adopt a “best ofbreed” approach.

We’ll never know for sure if Nostradamus had anything much tosay about the state and nature of the 401(k) plan. Word hasit he spent his retirement years trying to undo the damage done byhis expulsion from the Vogspherian Academy of Poetry, Insight andDelusion. But VAPID’s loss was human-kind’s gain as the peerlessprognosticator left a bevy of wannabes in his wake. I figured Ibetter jump on that bandwagon before some Vogon Constructor Fleetdestroys my particular 15 minutes of fame to make room for yetanother on-ramp to some Pan-Galactic Highway.

Regardless, the infrastructure of many 401(k) plans willlook dramatically different a year from now.