Hiring and economic growth is expected to pick up in 2013 while the real gross domestic product growth is projected to near a 4 percent annual pace with more than 250,000 jobs created per month by 2014, according to the report “U.S. Macro Outlook: Slow and Steady Isn’t Enough” by Moody Analytics, an independent provider of economic forecasting.
The report also finds that besides monthly data fluctuations, the job market has created a steady 150,000 jobs per month since early 2010.
“While in normal times this would be healthy and enough to reduce unemployment, it’s not good enough when unemployment is high and millions are suffering,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody Analytics.
The lack of job creation is clear in nearly every industry with the exceptions of energy and health care, both of which are adding jobs at a near prerecession pace, the report finds. While hiring is slow among large companies as well as small companies, employers with more than 1,000 employees are hiring more normally, but hiring for employers with 20 to 50 workers are is behind.
Policy uncertainty, which is partly calculated by Moody’s Analytics Business Confidence Survey, is still too high. In fact, business respondents say they are mostly worried about regulatory and legal issues, especially the upcoming tax increases that are scheduled to take effect at the end of 2012 as part of the fiscal cliff.
“As long as businesses are nervous about government policy, hiring will remain depressed and the broader economy will grow slowly,” Zandi says.