(Bloomberg) Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine is readyto start over with the health-care debate. John McCain is back homeindefinitely in Arizona fighting brain cancer.

|

Republicans can only lose two votes and still pass theirembattled health bill, with several other Republicans undecidedover whether to proceed. Even so, Majority Leader Mitch McConnellof Kentucky says the Senate will vote early next week on, well,something related to health care.

|

Collins said Thursday she has “no idea” what that will be.

|

The party has lurched in recent days between giving up onrepealing Obamacare and restarting talks over a new Trumpadministration proposal aimed at winning over moderates. Next weekcould be a key test over whether Republicans have any chance atdelivering on their seven years of promises.

|

Almost all Republicans still say they want to get to "yes." Butthat path has remained stubbornly elusive, as the GOP confrontsestimates that its bill will leave millions more Americans withouthealth insurance.

|

“If you’re still going to take more than $700 billion out of theMedicaid program, I still have significant problems,” Collinssaid.

Seeking Repeal

Conservatives are still pushing for a more complete repeal ofObamacare, and are happy to push ahead with McConnell’sbreak-glass-in-case-of-emergency plan to repeal Obamacare with atwo-year delay.

|

Related: Trumpurges senate GOP to delay recess to repealObamacare

|

“I’ve been advocating that we repeal Obamacare -- all of it,”Senator Rand Paul, a Kentucky Republican, said this week.

|

Whether that vote can succeed remains in doubt as negotiationscontinue on a replacement.

|

Senate Republicans weren’t helped by a Congressional BudgetOffice analysis Thursday that found McConnell’s latest proposalwould cause 22 million Americans to lose their health insurance ina decade, the same as his last plan that didn’t gather enoughsupport. The nonpartisan budget office also found that the Senatebill, called the Better Care Reconciliation Act, would raise costsfor many people with private coverage and slash Medicaidspending.

|

At the same time, the CBO said the Senate bill cuts the U.S.budget deficit by $420 billion by 2016, an increase from $321billion forecast under the previous version of the bill. That couldprovide GOP leaders added funds to bump up health expenditures andattract support of some moderate holdouts.

Negotiations Continue

Talks continue over possible changes, with more than 20undecided Republicans attending a Wednesday night meeting withHealth and Human Services Secretary Tom Price, and conversationscontinued with McConnell Thursday. Holdouts include Rob Portman ofOhio, Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, Mike Lee of Utah, LisaMurkowski of Alaska and Jerry Moran of Kansas.

|

One change under discussion, which has attracted interest frompivotal Republicans like Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, would provideextra funds to states to help move some low-income people fromMedicaid to private insurance plans. Seema Verma, the head of theCenters for Medicare and Medicaid Services, proposed that idea tosome GOP senators on Wednesday, Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan said.Sullivan said Verma called it a “wraparound” plan to provide extrahelp on the individual market for poor people.

|

Her plan seeks to partially replace Obamacare’s cost-sharingsubsidies that lower out-of-pocket costs for people making between100 percent and 250 percent of the poverty level. The current GOPhealth bill would end the Obamacare subsidies. Details of Verma’splan haven’t been made public, and it isn’t clear that there’d beenough funding in the bill to help all the low-income people whowould leave Medicaid maintain similar coverage to what Obamacareprovides.

|

Cassidy told reporters Thursday that “empirically it works,” andthat his understanding is that as much as $200 billion may beallocated to fund that.

Possible Revolt

Even as some moderates examine the idea, Republican leadersstill risk a revolt by Ted Cruz of Texas and some otherconservatives. They’re insisting on the inclusion of Cruz’sproposal to allow private insurers to offer policies free ofObamacare’s consumer protections alongside plans that comply. Itremains unclear whether the provision will be allowed underexpedited procedures Republicans are using, or whether it will beremoved by opponents who say its promise of cheaper plans wouldpull too many healthy people out of the exchanges.

|

Some lawmakers are changing positions frequently, making theoutcome of next week’s votes hard to gauge.

|

Paul shifted course and told reporters Thursday that he wouldvote with his party to allow the health-care debate to begin when acritical procedural vote comes as early as Tuesday, so long as he’sguaranteed a vote on a full repeal. He made clear he still doesn’tback the GOP’s leadership replacement legislation.

|

“If they want my vote, they have to at least agree that we willhave a vote on clean repeal,” he said. He said that as long as thatproposal gets “equal billing” with other alternatives on the firstday of debate, he’ll help let the leaders bring their bill to thefloor.

|

Senator Bob Corker, a Tennessee Republican, on Thursday for thefirst time said he would support a repeal of Obamacare “after areasonable transition period.” It is a marked shift for a senatorwho has called for a clear replacement, and who successfullylobbied Republican leaders to keep Obamacare’s tax increases forthe wealthy in their replacement plan.

|

Republican leaders, who have said they want to begin work on atax overhaul rather than prolong the health debate, say they’redetermined to hold their vote next week, regardless of theoutcome.

|

Senator John Cornyn of Texas, the No. 2 Republican leader, toldreporters Thursday that if the measure fails and McCain is absent,the legislation can be reconsidered when he returns.

|

“If we fail by one vote, we can come back to it when he isavailable,” Cornyn said. “There is some benefit to going forwardnext week to see where we are, and that may be the outcome.”

|

Copyright 2018 Bloomberg. All rightsreserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten,or redistributed.

Complete your profile to continue reading and get FREE access to BenefitsPRO, part of your ALM digital membership.

  • Critical BenefitsPRO information including cutting edge post-reform success strategies, access to educational webcasts and videos, resources from industry leaders, and informative Newsletters.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM, BenefitsPRO magazine and BenefitsPRO.com events
  • Access to other award-winning ALM websites including ThinkAdvisor.com and Law.com
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.