(Bloomberg) -- A top executive at a major Wall Street bankis deep into his spiel on how artificial intelligence will make the firmsmarter and leaner when he pauses to take a question: What doesthis mean for young people entering the business?

The silence grows.

“It’s, um,” he says, shifting tone and making clear he can’tspeak publicly. That question is gnawing at him, he confides,because he has kids. “I would want them to pick their careers verycarefully. I think AI is going to eliminate most jobs. That’s aprivate view. I think we’re just starting to feel that.”

Within the upper echelons of many financial firms, there’s a lotof soul searching as executives prepare to roll out a newgeneration of technology. Publicly, they’re upbeat,predicting machines will perform almost all repetitive tasks,freeing humans to focus on more valuablepursuits. Privately, many confide to peers, consultants andsometimes journalists that they’re worried about what will happento their staffs -- and what to tell them.

There’s also uncertainty. Maybe it’s all overblown, executivessay, because the tech will be hard to implement and humans willfind new roles. Or perhaps it’s the beginning of the end forlegions of professionals in one of the world’s most lucrativefields. Can jobs held by office-dwelling millionairesdisappear like those on factory floors?

The result, is that employees aren’t getting a clear message onwhat’s to come.

For a rosy scenario, look to McKinsey & Co. In July, theconsulting firm published a report estimating machines are ready toassume roughly a third of the work now performed by banks’ rank andfile. The authors framed it as positive: People will have more timeto tend to clients, conduct research or brainstorm ideas. So far,it noted, firms at the forefront aren’t slashing jobs.

At JPMorgan Chase & Co., one of the most tech-savvy banks,Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon predicted in June that hisworkforce will more likely grow than shrink over the next 20 years.Technology may displace workers, he’s said, but it also createsopportunities.

Yet in interviews, about a dozen Wall Street executives andconsultants responsible for deploying technologies -- and steepedin their capabilities -- were more bearish on humans. Machines willtake over task after task, they said, and banks simply won’t neednearly as many people.

It’s time for senior managers to stop sugarcoating, said SimonMoss, who has been advising banks and investing firms as head ofGrant Thornton LLP’s fintech and innovation practice for theindustry.

“Are there positions in financial services that are actuallyuntouchable from technology? The simple answer is ‘No,’” Moss said.“It’s just a case of when.”

Early adopters like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bankof New York Mellon Corp. are experimenting, he said. They’reworking with tech including machine-learning software that improvesitself by searching data for patterns, and natural-languageprocessing, which helps computers comprehend human speech. Oncefirms figure out how to deploy those, rivals may quickly followsuit. Humans will have less to do, and banks will whittle costs byshrinking headcount.

“Sitting with excess capacity is not a good business decision,’’Moss said. Managers should start warning employees that they needto learn more skills to stay on.

That’s supported by history. Floor traders who once shoutedorders in raucous marble-columned exchanges have seen their numbersdwindle since the 1990s, forcing many to seek new work. Gary Cohn,who last year stepped down as president of Goldman Sachs, toldinvestors in 2011 that technology had helped the firm slashequities staff by more than half over the previous decade. Thetrend was similar in currencies.

Easing burden

Few automators set out to kill jobs.

Inder Thukral, co-founder of Kognetics LLC, is makingmachine-learning algorithms that ease life for investment bankersworking around the clock on mergers and acquisitions.

“It’s the spirit-crushing work that it’s replacing,” he said inan interview. Dealmakers should focus on only the most importantstuff, he said. “Searching through 6,000 documents is a computer’sjob, so let it do it.”

Ultimately, that means fewer people will be needed, he said. Butif planned well, banks may be able to avoid firings throughattrition -- leaving positions open as they become vacant.

That hope comes up a lot. At UBS Group AG executives are using adigital employee known as Amelia to quickly perform repetitivetasks in the firm’s investment bank and asset management divisions.Executives say employees shouldn’t fret as the software, developedby digital labor company IPSoft Inc., spreads acrossoperations.

“The first question at mind is ‘What happens to my job?’” saidTom DeCarlo, a managing director who sits on the bank’s innovationcommittee. But dismissals aren’t his plan. “As we have attrition --internal or external -- I’m just not replacing those people.’’

Sergio Ermotti, the bank’s CEO, said in a recent interview thatthe firm could shed 30 percent of its employees over a decade.Another senior UBS executive, asking not to be quoted by name,estimated technology would allow it to operate with up to 40percent fewer people in just four to eight years.

‘Tippy-toed’ long enough

Attrition has limits. Some employees may retire, while othersquit to take more promising jobs elsewhere. But if the wholeindustry is shrinking, those opportunities may be scarce.

There’s no denying that fewer people will be needed, accordingto Richard Johnson, vice president of market structure andtechnology at Greenwich Associates. At least, he said, thetransformation will be incremental. “It’s not as if everyone isgoing to come to work and there’s a bunch of robots sitting intheir seats.”

But eventually, a transformation is coming, said IPSoft CEOChetan Dube, who’s working with UBS and more than 100 other financefirms to deploy his company’s software.

“Time, tide and technology will wait for no one,” he said.“We’ve tippy-toed around this topic too much and for too long.”

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