As a group, voluntary brokers and executives have historicallyoverreacted to industry developments. Some of these developmentspromised great benefits through chasing a new trend, while otherswarned of doom based on a new threat.

Being vigilant and taking advantage of change are key hallmarksof the successful. But recognizing a new force at work is only halfthe equation. The other half is successfully predicting when thetime is right to make a move. Being late has obvious risks, but sodoes being too early. Will you be ahead of the curve, moving beforeyour clients and staff agree on the need? Will you changedirection, develop new plans and reorient your business only tohave to retrench when the smoke clears? Will you spend your timeand money chasing the non-existent or the unimportant?

Only recently, the idea of “electronic brokers” (seizingcommissions through BOR letters and securing them by offering freeelectronic tools), was seen by many as a major threat to brokers.Earlier this year, 7 percent of voluntary brokers reported that itwas the single-greatest threat to their business. What doyou think those folks did?

Another instructive example is private exchanges. Seeing thisopportunity (threat) required peering through the haze of movingdefinitions, confusion about the concept and the overly optimisticforecasts (“research”) of adherents and vendors. In 2015, 40percent of voluntary company executives thought private exchangeswere important, very important, or extremely important. Today, only12 percent feel that way and 61 percent consider them “not veryimportant.” What do you think those execs did back in 2015?

The point is that we all need to temper our expectations abouttrends. No one can predict the future, and those who have mostoften been right have predicted slow and steady change, rather thana revolutionary upheaval. Guard your time and money.