Rolling back Obamacare’s requirement that all Americans havehealth insurance would save the U.S. $338 billion over 10 years,according to the Congressional Budget Office, a smaller benefitthan previously projected for a plan favored by the WhiteHouse.

Republicans are considering repealing the coverage rule in the AffordableCare Act as a way to pay for far-reaching changes in the taxcode. The savings would come from the government spending less to subsidize Obamacare plans asmore people opt to forgo health coverage.

While ending the mandate could free funds up for a tax overhaul,it would also leave people without health insurance and lead tohigher premiums. CBO estimated Wednesdaythat 13 million more people would be uninsured in 2027 comparedwith current law if the mandate is repealed starting in 2019.Premiums would increase by about 10 percent in most years of thedecade the report covers.

Both the savings and coverage losses are lower than CBO’sDecember projection, inpart because the non-partisan agency updated the impact from thefederal health-insurance subsidies and determined that people andtheir employers would take longer than it previously thought tomake changes to their insurance plans.

Back in December, CBO said eliminating the mandate would reducethe deficit $416 billion over a decade, and lead to 15 million morepeople without health insurance. The new number of 13 milliondoesn’t take into account a decision by President Donald Trump tostop paying cost-sharing reduction payments made to insurers underObamacare to help Americans afford health costs, CBO saidWednesday.

Spread risk

The mandate is meant to spread risk evenly among healthy andsick people to help keep overall costs down. Without it, healthierpeople could buy cheaper plans that don’t meet Obamacare coveragerequirements, while those who need care, such as people withpre-existing medical conditions, will face rising costs.

Concerns about people losing coverage doomed a Senate bill thatwould have ended the mandate while leaving other parts of the ACAintact, known as “skinny repeal,” in July.

The House Committee on Ways and Means started debate Monday onthe tax bill, called the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. An amendment fromChairman Kevin Brady revised one of the GOP tax bill’s offshoreprovisions -- leading to an estimated $74 billion revenue hole, which is sending taxwriters scrambling to find additional revenue.

Trump backed overturning the mandate in a tweet last week,pushing for the savings generated to be used “for further TaxCuts.” House Speaker Paul Ryan said on “Fox News Sunday” that GOPleaders are considering the idea.

CBO’s December estimates coveredthe 2018 -2026 period. The new projections assume the mandate wouldbe repealed in 2019 and apply to the years 2018 to 2027. TheCBO said that it is revising its methods for calculating theeffects of repealing the mandate but isn’t including major changesin this analysis.

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