The effort to make patients better health care shoppers by increasing theirout-of-pocket costs seems to be working,according to actuaries at the Centers for Medicare and MedicaidServices (CMS).
|A team of CMS actuaries and economists says moves to increasepatients' out-of-pocket costs, or “give them more skin in the game,” appear to be working tohold down overall U.S. health care spending.
|Gigi Cuckler and other analysts at the CMS Office of the Actuarytalk about the effects of high-deductible plans on health care costs intheir latest batch of national health expenditure projections.
|“The share of covered workers who are enrolled inhigh-deductible plans was 28 percent in 2017, compared with just 5percent in 2007,” the analysts write, in a paper published behind apaywall on the website of Health Affairs, an academic journal.
|“Enrollment in high-deductible plans tends to constrain the useof health care goods and services, particularly when the initialenrollment shift occurs,” the analysts write.
|Use of high-deductible plans probably contributed to a0.9-percent-point-drop in hospital care spending growth andphysician and clinical services spending growth in 2017, theanalysts write.
|But, because the percentage of people in high-deductible plansis likely to level off in the next few years, the effect of use ofhigh-deductible plans on future increases in spending could leveloff around 2021, the analysts predict.
|In the article, the analysts also give details about how theythink the U.S. health care sector performed in 2017, and how itmight perform from now through 2026.
|2017
The analysts say the United States spent $3.5 trillion, or $18percent of its $19 trillion in gross domestic product, on all kindsof health care and related goods and services in 2017.
|Overall health care spending was 4.6 percent higher than in2016. The rate of increase was up from 4.3 percent between 2015 and2016.
|Private health insurance accounted for $2.6 trillion of 2017health care spending, up 5.6 percent in 2016.
|Patients' out-of-pocket spending increased 4.6 percent, to $365billion.
|Total health care expending per person increased 3.6 percent.For 2016, the per-capita increase in health spending was 3.5percent.
|The net cost of health insurance, or the amount spent onadministering health coverage and, for example, paying agentcommissions, increased 8.1 percent, to $238 billion.
|The net cost of health insurance increased so much partlybecause private insurers increased their premiums in 2017, due toproblems with underpricing in 2016, the analysts write.
|The future
The analysts expect national health expenditures to increase 5.3percent this year, to $3.7 trillion, and they expect the country tospend $5.7 trillion on health care and related costs in 2026.
|If the analysts' projections hold, health spending could accountfor 19.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2026.
|The net cost of health insurance could rise 7.8 percent thisyear, to $256 billion, and it could rise to $409 billion in2026.
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