In examining Trump's claimabout a crash, investors might reasonably ask how much of thepolicy benefit would be rolled back if his presidency werethreatened. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

(Bloomberg) –How seriously should people take Donald Trump'sclaim that stocks would crash if he were kicked out ofoffice? As you mull over an answer, consider what someone in theother party would say.

Maybe there's a less subjective way to judge — with earningsestimates, perhaps, which have changed a lot during his presidency.Or maybe valuation. Neither is perfect, but nor is any quest forscience in the stock market.

Before digging in, acknowledge that stocks have enjoyedunusually strong gains since Election Day, with the S&P 500rising at an annualized rate of 20 percent, crushing the historicalreturn of 9.4 percent since 1927.

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At the same time, note the Trump return is only about 1percentage point higher than the yearly gain since March 2009, anera mostly overseen by Barack Obama.

Changes in earnings forecasts under Trump have been stark,compared with history. Last December, analysts were predictingS&P 500 earnings of about $146 a share for 2018, forecaststhat, thanks largely to the president's tax cuts, soared over thenext two months, rising four times as fast as any period Bloombergtracks.

And companies made good: S&P 500 operating income jumped 24percent in each of the last two quarters and analysts see combinedEPS of $159 a share for all of this year.

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Predictions for 2019 profits also soared, going from $163 ashare at the start of the year to $177 a share now, an upwardrevision that dwarfs any since at least 2012.

Add to that a small bump in valuations: the S&P 500 fetched20.07 times annual earnings on Election Day 2016 and 20.7 timesnow.

So say what you will about intangibles, if you believe corporateearnings and valuation call the stock market's tune, it's hard tosay the equity market doesn't owe at least some of its altitude tothe president.

Still, looking at earnings in isolation ignores a dozen otherfactors in speculating on how impeachment would affect stocks, frompolicy to sentiment to potentially catastrophicconsequences for the country's social fabric.

Any one of those could easily eclipse anything having to do withcorporate profits. But without an obvious framework for gaugingthose outcomes, the income lens is what's left.

In examining Trump's claim about a crash, investors mightreasonably ask how much of the policy benefit would be rolled backif his presidency were threatened. Analysts were mostly skepticalthe president is in any real danger and not sure there'd be anymajor impact should he be.

Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at InvescoLtd.:

“First of all, it is very unlikely that President Trump would beimpeached. If an impeachment did happen, we'd experience volatilityand perhaps a significant selloff, but I believe any such marketmoves would be short-term in nature. There are two reasons why: 1)We have already gotten the best of his agenda — tax reform andderegulation. Other elements of his agenda which he is currentlypursuing, particularly his trade policies, are not supportive ofgrowth and actually worry many business leaders. 2) Tax reform isthe gift that keeps on giving. It will add to GDP growth for yearsto come — in fact, the CBO projects it will have an increasinglypositive impact on GDP growth in the next several years. Also, ifhe were to be impeached, Mike Pence would assume the mantle and hehas a strong track record of stimulating growth in Indiana. Wecan't forget that the stock market is surprisingly resilient whenmonetary policy is accommodative, and it arguably is stillaccommodative.”

Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp. in London:

“The market isn't hinging on anything substantial that hasn'talready been carried through. The markets have largely rallied ontax reform and we've seen that reflected in company earnings. Butif there's political instability and the U.S. economic growthslowed significantly, that would have global implications.”

Greg Valliere, chief global strategist at Horizon InvestmentsLLC:

“The economy, amped up on stimulus, is growing by close to 4%,and unemployment is below 4%. If the trade wars cool off a littlethis fall, we still think stocks can grind higher. It's not apretty picture here in Washington, but as long as Trump doesn't gototally off the rails, investors can compartmentalize. With twomore Trump associates now facing jail time, chances have improvedthat the House will flip back to the Democrats, who in privateconcede that an impeachment debate probably will begin by latewinter. But we're sticking with our call — while the House mightindict Trump, Senate conviction still looks unlikely, unlessthere's a major change in the second point.”

Past instances of presidential turmoil showed contrasting stockreturns. In February 1974, when Congress initiated impeachmentproceedings against Richard Nixon, the market was in the midst of a1973-1974 bear market that was punctuated by an oil crisis and animplosion of the world's foreign change rate system. The S&P500 tumbled more than 30 percent through October that year.

In December 1998, when the House voted to impeach Bill Clinton,stocks kept rising during the last stage of the Internet boom. TheS&P 500 climbed for five straight months till Clinton'sacquittal in February 1999.

The S&P 500 was virtually unchanged as of 9:45 a.m. in NewYork, and the index barely budged Wednesday in the aftermath ofconvictions of the Trump associates that sparked renewed discussionof a potential impeachment.

“Equity markets don't seem to care, and we think they areright,” Nicholas Colas, Co-founder of DataTrek Research, wrote in anote. “Rates are low, the dollar is strong and corporate earningsremain robust. Those are the only things stock prices can (andshould) actually discount.”

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