When Democrats won the House majority in the November midtermelections, brokers sighed in relief: Stability for theoft-contested Affordable Care Act (ACA) was finally assured. Or sowe thought.

But in late December, Texas Federal Judge Reed O'Connor struckdown the ACA as unconstitutional, once again calling the future ofthe ACA into question and setting off a series of court rulings andHouse votes that have left employers' heads spinning.

Undoubtedly, clients will require your guidance to navigate thisrocky legislative arena, so staying informed about changes,potential scenarios, and their implications will continue to benecessary. Here's what's been going on with the ACA, and what couldchange for employers in 2019 and beyond.

A protracted game of politicalchess 

On Friday, Dec. 14, O'Connor declared the ACA unconstitutionaldue to the zeroed-out individual mandate penalties. According toO'Connor, when Congress reduced the health care penalty to zero, itwas no longer exercising its taxing power and therefore invalidatedthe Supreme Court's 2012 reasoning for upholding the ACA asconstitutional.

Following O'Connor's decision, a number of states announcedthey'll appeal the ruling to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals.Since then, O'Connor stayed his ruling for the duration of the appealsprocess, allowing the ACA and all its aspects, includingits employer compliance requirement, to remain in effect throughoutall challenges to his ruling.

In the meantime, the House geared up to defend the ACA in court.On Jan. 3, the House voted through a package of operation rules,one of which gave it power to intervene in the ACA court case anddefend the law. Less than a week later, the House voted again on the same legislative action, butthis time as a standalone rule. By holding a vote solely forintervening in the ACA, the Democrats worked to pressure theRepublicans to take a stand on health care. In the year's firstmove of health care political chess, three Republicans voted infavor of the rule, setting the stage for the legislative debatesand political platforms in 2020.

Two possible paths forward

The earliest the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals will hear theappeal to O'Connor's ruling is this summer. At that time, theruling will either be upheld or overturned. I and numerous otherlegal experts expect the Fifth Circuit to overturn O'Connor'sdecision, which bucked anticipated legal jurisprudence by strikingdown the entirety of the law as unconstitutional. If the ruling isoverturned and the plaintiffs bring their case before the SupremeCourt, the Supreme Court is unlikely to hear it, meaning the FifthCircuit's decision to overturn O'Connor's ruling would stand (aswould the ACA).

On the other hand, if the Fifth Circuit upholds the ruling, manybelieve the case would head to the Supreme Court, who likelywouldn't hear the case until summer 2020 at the earliest. Untilthen, the ACA would remain in effect. When the Supreme Courtfinally hears the case (assuming this case goes the distance), manyexpect the Supreme Court will hold the ACA constitutional as it hasin the past.

However, the entire case against the ACA could become moot ifCongress makes certain legislative changes to the law. Forinstance, if the penalty for the individual mandate is revised orrevoked, the case will be thrown out.

What to do while the appeal ispending 

Throughout the appeals process, the ACA remains the law of theland. Employers need to continue complying, and make sure they meetthe March 4 fulfillment deadline or the April 1 e-filingdeadline.

As the hearings continue, your clients will have questions aboutwhere the case stands, the legality of the ACA, and theirrequirements to comply. It's your job to be prepared and evenproactively inform them of any changes. Whether it's by stayingabreast of all communications from your professional association orconsulting with your benefits lawyer, have a plan in place toensure you're ready to expertly advise your clients. With 2020 onthe horizon, lining up your resources now to stay informed of thelaw will help you effectively guide your clients and betterposition yourself as an invaluable resource to them.

Arthur Tacchino, J.D., is an ACA expert and the ChiefInnovation Officer at SyncStreamSolutions, a company providing ACA reporting and compliancesolutions.