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Do you want to become an expert at predicting the future?There's an easy way to do it, but it does have an importantlimitation.

Here's a metaphor:

At this precise moment, a rock rolls down a steep incline. Wherewill it be in the next second? Where will it be in the next hour?The next day? The next year? The next millennium?

You get my drift. It's far easier to extrapolate a near-termevent to predict the short-term future. The more distant you travelinto time, the more difficult it is to fathom what that futurelooks like.

The first step, however, remains getting a confident picture ofthat near-term event you deem most relevant. If you're readingthis, you'll probably want to know what interests top industryplayers the most. (see "Top 5 FiduciaryNews.com Stories in 2019 for the401k Plan Sponsor and Fiduciary," FiduciaryNews.com, December24, 2019).

If we can choose one word to describe plan sponsors in 2019, itwould be "anxious."

Now, don't go jumping to conclusions. This isn't necessarily abad thing. In fact, it could be a very good thing. To be anxiousmeans to be alert, on your toes, ready to make a move at a moment'snotice. Those are all good things.

OK, maybe a better word might have been "preparing."

You see, in reviewing the most widely read articles inFiduciaryNews.com, it becomes obvious folks are concerned aboutwhat they don't know. Maybe they're concerned about more than that.Maybe they're concerned about not knowing what they don't know.

To address this concern, they're looking for specific answers.Actually, it's likely they're looking for the right people – thepeople who can provide those specific answers.

If you want to be one of those people, you want to discover whatthe questions are that prompt this need for specific answers. Tofind those questions, go to the crowd. For the crowd, though it mayhave its fault, is not without some wisdom.

Only it's not the wisdom most people are searching for.

It is, nonetheless, a valuable source of wisdom for those withthe keenness of eyesight to discern that wisdom. Here's what thatwisdom reveals: The wisdom of the crowd reveals the question, notthe answer.

Once you understand that, you can understand why it's valuableto follow the crowd.

And by "follow the crowd" I don't mean chase after it like alemming. No. I mean to track it. Measure its pace. Get a goodpicture of where it's at right now, what direction it's moving in,and how committed it is in continuing in that direction.

Only then can you confidently predict it will be in theshort-term. And by capturing a series of "correct" predictions(even if they're short-term), people will begin to notice you. Theymay even ask you for a long-term prediction.

Don't fall to that temptation.