(Photo:AP)

The Trump administration's 2021 budget proposal projects robusteconomic growth over the next decade, and in turn higher payrollreceipts that would shrink Social Security's swelling deficit.

The budget proposal, released Monday, projects Real GrossDomestic Product will be 2.8 percent in 2020 and 3.1 percent in2021. From 2022 to 2025, the proposal projects 3 percent GDPgrowth, ultimately settling at 2.8 percent in 2030.

That kind of robust growth would translate to higher payrolltaxes to fund Social Security. According to the White House'sbudget proposal, Social Security's portion of the payroll tax willgenerate $1.23 trillion in 2025, $1.59 trillion in 2030, and $12.8trillion for the next decade.

Rose-colored glasses?

None of those receipts will be enough to cover Social Security'scosts.

But they would substantially lower the government's largestmandatory spending program's deficits, in turn making it easier topass reforms to avoid its impending insolvency, which will happenby 2035.

Under the White House's most recent assumptions, SocialSecurity's deficit will be about $133 billion in 2020, $200 billionin 2025, and more than $300 billion by 2030. Between 2021 and 2030,the budget projects Social Security will run a $2 trilliondeficit.

While considerable, it would be about $1.2 trillion less thanestimates under the Congressional Budget Office's Social Securityprojections for the decade between 2021 and 2030.

That gap is explained by the vast difference between the WhiteHouse's and CBO's growth assumptions, said Marc Goldwein, seniorvice president and senior policy director for the Committee for aResponsible Federal Budget, a non-partisan think-tank thatadvocates for sustainable fiscal policy.

"The President thinks economic growth will be way faster thanpretty much every other economist," said Goldwein.

CBO is projecting an average 1.7 percent annual GDP growth overthe next decade, far below the White House's 2.9 percentaverage.

CRFB surveyed 13 different forecasters, including the CBO, saidGoldwein. Average annual projected growth was between 1.6 percentand 2.2 percent.

As the decade progresses, the disparity between the WhiteHouse's and CBO's Social Security revenue projections widens.

They are roughly the same in 2020. By 2025, CBO projectsreceipts will be about $1.16 trillion, compared to the WhiteHouse's $1.4 trillion.

By 2030, CBO projects about $1.4 trillion in Social Securitytaxes, compared to the White House's nearly $1.6 trillion, a $200billion difference.

Between 2021 to 2030, the White House's GDP projections wouldgenerate more than $1 trillion more in Social Security revenue thanthe under the CBO's growth projections.