The short-term effects of the coronavirus pandemic are inescapable andevident everywhere in the U.S., while its long-term consequences will emerge over time,in particular for the federal budget, including the Social Security program's finances.

On April 22, the Social Security Board of Trustees published itsannualreport, in which it projected that combined asset reserves ofthe Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance TrustFunds would become depleted in 2035, absent congressional actionbefore then.

However, the report did not take into account COVID-19's effectson the program's finances.

"Given the uncertainty associated with these impacts, theTrustees believe it is not possible to adjust estimates accuratelyat this time," Andrew Saul,Social Security's commissioner, said in a statement.

"The duration and severity of the pandemic will affect theestimates presented in this year's report and the financialstatus of the program, particularly in the short term."

The Penn Wharton Budget Model, released Thursday, sought to fillthat gap by including the pandemic's effects in its latest projections of Social Security's financial outlook.

PWBM is an independent research organization housed at theWharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

According to PWBM, under the "U-shaped recession" it projected,the pandemic will bring forward the OASDI trust fund depletion dateby four years, from 2036 to 2032.

This will happen, it said, because reduced Social Securityrevenue from pandemic-induced job losses, lower earnings and lowinterest rates will outweigh corresponding reductions in costs fromlower total benefits paid.

PWBM said that under a quicker recovery, or "V-shaped"recession, the OASDI trust fund would instead run out two yearsearlier, in 2034.

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