Political experts James Carvilleand Mary Matalin shared their insights on the current politicallandscape and what to expect in 2020 at the recent BenefitsPROBroker Expo in Miami, Florida. (Photo: ThomasPhillips/ALM)

The polarization in the current American political landscape hascrippled any sense of bipartisanship. Unfortunately for the publicwho rely on politicians to get work done in the interest of theAmerican people, this can result in gridlock and empty promises. Asthe 2020 election nears, voters will seek out candidates who can enact change andalter their lives for the better. But this will only occur if bothsides come together and foster a greater sense of bipartisanship.Political experts James Carville and Mary Matalin, who have longembodied this sentiment as husband and wife, shared their insightson the current political landscape and what to expect in 2020 atthe recent BenefitsPRO Broker Expo in Miami, Florida.

Understanding the current political climate requires anexamination of the role of media. In particular, social media hascreated a demand for around-the-clock coverage. “The paradox of theInformation Age is that it affects politics—as it affectseverything, actually—we have exponentially more information and weare arguably no wiser,” Matalin told expo attendees. She believesthe media has been reduced to sound bites and 240-character tweets,which isn't an ideal vehicle to understanding policy.

Alternatively, the cloak of anonymity produced by the internethas fermented greater incivility between those with entrenchedviewpoints. This is most evident with Russia's interference in the2016 elections, much of which was conducted with targeted effortsover the internet. Not everyone was a victim, however, which speaksto some of the upsides of the internet. “Young people, I think, seeright through this. They've been sort of conditioned to beskeptical to what they're looking at,” Matalin said. “But they'vealso unfortunately been siloed into revalidating their ownperspective.”

To go forward, Matalin thinks there must be a return tofirst principles. The things the founders agreed on, even thoughthey disagreed with each other in many areas, included an informedpopulous and a free press. “With so many people in the field, themedia being what it is, the education level of policy understandingtoday,” Matalin is concerned for the 2020 election and encourageseveryone to do their own research.

The most staggering aspect of polarization in Carville'sperspective is geographic polarization. In the United States, thereare some 3,100 counties across the country. In order to qualify asa supermajority county, the county has to vote for one party bymore than 50 percent. He says in the U.S. in 1992, therewere 96 supermajority counties; in 2016, there were over 1,200.

“What that tells you is that people are clustering together byideology,” Carville noted. After the 2000 election, the strategicdoctrine for some time was that there were no voters in the middle,“that every election was going to be decided by who could energizetheir own voters.” The 2018 election defied this notion.

“I cannot tell you what a big deal 2018 was in politicalhistory,” Carville added. “2018 had the highest turnout of anyoff-year election since women were granted the right to vote.” Hesays Democrats were energized following the 2016 election, withRepublicans quickly following suit after the Brett Kavanaughhearings. Ultimately, everyone came out, but Carville said“the differential in that election was not the base, it was thesuburbs.” He believes these swing voters will determine the 2020election.

The role of government in health care is one of the fewcontentious issue that members of both parties agree must beaddressed. Paul Wilson, editor in chief of Benefits Pro, askedMatalin and Carville where they thought Medicare for All orsingle-payer might go next, and if there was arealistic chance that universal health care would exist in theU.S.

While acknowledging that something has to be done about the costof health care, Matalin believes nothing will happen politically,despite Republicans running for six years on the repeal-and-replaceof Obamacare. President Trump stated he was willing to wait untilthe 2020 election to vote on health care, and Matalin believes hemay issue an executive order on the matter “as he has in many othercontroversial issues.” Carville expressed doubts over the chance ofMedicare for all because everyone would be in Medicare, somethingthe approximately 160 million people who have employee-based healthinsurance are unlikely to forego willingly.

No matter the issue, educating future decision makers to votewill determine what initiatives see the light of day. The youthvote has been episodic, but Matalin says the best candidates arethe ones who use Information Age tools to encourage and incentivizeface-to-face contact. Eventually, the issues of today—whether it behealth care or student loan debt—will be the issues oftomorrow for future voters, so Matalin said “they should engagewith their own futures.”

With the 2020 election steadily approaching, Matalin predictedRepublicans will win. Carville, however, said the numbers don'tbode well for Trump and Republicans. While Democrats are in a goodposition, his advice for them is to “go back and have a debateabout something people are actually talking about themselves.”After all, Carville concluded, “politics is all about relating topeople about things that matter to people.”

Read more of our Expo coverage:

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• Meeting with the C-Suite: Don't mention healthinsurance
• Knowing your worth, and other strategies forbrokers to build their businesses