Molina's warning raises questions about costs at Aetna, Cigna, Elevance and UnitedHealth

"This preliminary result reflects medical cost pressures in all three lines of business," the company warned. "The company expects these medical cost pressures to continue into the second half of the year."'

Centene — a company with big Medicaid, Medicare and ACA exchange operations and some group health operations — announced on July 1 that it was giving up on trying to predict how much it will earn this year because of concerns about its ACA exchange plan enrollees. But Centene's decision to withdraw the earnings guidance was mainly the result of worries about enrollment problems, not high current claim costs, and the company noted that its Medicare plans have been performing better than expected.

The earnings backdrop: The Molina and Centene announcements have cast a harsh light on the upcoming earnings release period for the second quarter. The quarter ended June 30.

Some of the forces shaping claim costs in the individual coverage and employer plan markets are different, but some, such as general hospital and physician pricing trends, are similar.

Issuers of stop-loss insurance, or insurance for employers' self-funded health plans, have been complaining about a big surge in health claim costs for the past year.

Related: Voya's stop-loss price increases average 21%, or higher, for 2025

UnitedHealth withdrew its earnings guidance for the year in May, when Stephen Hemsley returned to the company's CEO post. But the company said that decision was mainly the result of the performance of employer-sponsored Medicare Advantage plans. It has not talked about claims at insured or self-insured employer health plans.

Cigna and CVS Health, the parent of Aetna, increased their earnings guidance for the year when they released results for the first quarter, and Elevance Health maintained its earnings guidance.

Cigna, CVS, Elevance and UnitedHealth all own big pharmacy benefit manager businesses, and Congress gave them a boost by eliminating broad PBM provisions from the final version of the new One Big Beautiful Bill Act tax and spending package. The original version did include some PBM provisions.

But factors that could have driven up commercial plan costs in the second quarter include quiet waves of upper respiratory diseases, including COVID-19, and providers' increasingly aggressive approach to increasing rates and scheduling patient care.

The earnings release schedule: Here's a look at when some of the big health insurers and stop-loss issuers that sell stock to the public plan to post their earnings:

Elevance: July 17 (morning).

Molina: July 23 (afternoon).

UnitedHealth: July 29 (morning).

Humana: July 30 (morning).

Cigna: July 31 (morning).

CVS Health (Aetna): July 31 (morning).

Public health insurers usually hold conference calls with securities analysts around when they post their earnings.

Members of the public, including employers and benefits brokers, can find information about how to listen to the calls and call recordings on the insurers' investor relations pages.