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The overall increase in the cost of health care, or medical cost trend, could be about 8.5% in 2026, according to a new report from analysts at PwC.
The new cost trend projection is about the same as what the PwC analysts have been seeing in the U.S. group health market this year.
But the current level of cost inflation has disappointed the analysts: A year ago, the analysts were hoping employers could hold the 2025 cost trend to 8%.
Related: Group medical cost trend to hit 8% in 2025: PwC
Medical cost trend is a figure that shows how much a health plan's medical claim costs would change if it kept its plan design the same.
One force that could increase employers' health plan costs is a looming cut in federal spending on Medicaid and Affordable Care Act subsidies.
If federal policy changes increase the number of hospital patients who have no health insurance, that "could lead to an increase in uncompensated care sought by the uninsured, thus pressuring hospitals to seek higher rates in contract negotiation and driving increases in medical cost trend," the PwC analysts write.
If the Trump administration imposes new "tariffs," or taxes, on imports of drugs and medical devices, that could also increase employer health plan spending, the analysts write.
The analysts see the high cost of the new "cellular, gene and RNA therapies" used to treat conditions such as sickle cell disease, hemophilia and muscular dystrophy as an emerging health care cost driver.
A new form of sickle cell disease gene therapy, Lyfgenia, can cost $3.1 million for a one-time infusion, and about 16,000 U.S. patients may be good candidates for having that therapy.
Another new gene therapy treatment, Elevidys, can help people with Duchenne muscular dystrophy and costs $3.2 million for a one-time infusion.
"So far, providers are using these therapies sparingly due to safety concerns, uncertain long-term benefits, prescriber caution and payer hesitancy," the analysts write. "But physicians and systems could adopt these therapies more widely as clinical evidence matures."
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