The latest CEO Confidence Index from Vistage reveals that confidence among small and midsize business CEOs saw significant gains in the fourth quarter of 2025 as leaders grow more comfortable operating in ongoing economic uncertainty. While optimism has not returned to the highs seen a year ago following the 2024 election, leaders are gaining clarity around the realities they expect to face in 2026.
“This increase doesn’t signal a return to euphoria,” said Joe Galvin, Vistage’s chief research officer. “Following the election, optimism made way to rising costs and uneven demand. But now, CEOs have recalibrated expectations. They’re no longer waiting for policy clarity – they’re focused on what they can control and identifying opportunities for their businesses. As sentiment stabilizes, CEOs are sharpening their focus on driving performance in 2026.”
Hiring is gaining momentum with 57% of small and mid-size business CEOs planning to increase headcount within the next 12 months, while only 7% anticipate workforce reductions. Additionally, CEOs are responding to skilled labor shortages and rising wages by hiring beyond U.S. borders. Thirty-eight percent said they are currently hiring workers who live outside the U.S. – 15% as employees and 23% as contractors – with another 5% planning to do so in the future.
A majority, (53%), of small to midsize business CEOs also anticipate improved profitability in 2026, despite ongoing pressure from labor, insurance and supplier costs. Thirty-six percent of CEOs said they plan to increase fixed investments over the next 12 months and nearly 70% expect higher sales revenues in the year ahead, a nine-point jump from Q3.
The report detailed that price increases remain widespread as cost pressures persist. Fifty-seven percent of small to mid-size business CEOs plan to raise prices in the next three months and of those, 8% expect increases greater than 10%, 19% anticipate hikes of 7-10%, 46% plan increases of 4-6%, and 24% expect increases of 1-3%.
“Things will look better in 2026 than they did in 2025,” said Lauren Saidel-Baker, CFA, economist at ITR Economics. “A lot of that uncertainty is now behind us, and we can move off those lows and into growth – but this is a slow build in momentum, not flipping a switch.”
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