Diabetes continues to pose a growing global health challenge, with prevalence projected to climb from roughly 1 in 10 adults today to one in eight by 2050, according to the International Diabetes Federation. The disease is linked to cardiovascular and renal complications, creating complex care needs and long-term demand for treatments, devices and services.
Type 2 diabetes, the more common form of the disease, is growing fastest due to high-sugar, processed diets, aging populations and sedentary lifestyles. While lifestyle modifications, blood sugar monitoring and pharmaceutical therapies can manage Type 2 diabetes, many patients eventually require insulin therapy. Approximately 20% of Type 2 patients in the U.S. already meet criteria for insulin use. Type 1 diabetes, in contrast, always requires insulin.
The rising prevalence of diabetes presents clear revenue opportunities for pharmaceutical and medical device companies. According to Moody's, demand for related treatments and devices is expected to grow steadily. GLP-1 receptor agonists, in particular, are reshaping the market for Type 2 diabetes. Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Novo Nordisk's Ozempic have seen strong sales growth, with Mounjaro generating $15.6 billion in the first nine months of 2025 — nearly double the same period in 2024. Ozempic grew 13% over the same period to about $14 billion, though growth is expected to moderate as U.S. Medicare price negotiations take effect in 2027 and Mounjaro captures additional market share.
GLP-1s may delay insulin initiation for many Type 2 patients, potentially moderating long-term growth for traditional diabetes therapies. Meanwhile, biosimilars have added competition in the insulin market, which has contracted about 15% globally since 2020 but is now stabilizing.
Medical devices, particularly insulin delivery systems and continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) such as Insulet's Omnipod and Abbott's Freestyle Libre, are expected to see growth exceeding the insulin market itself. These devices remain underpenetrated, offering opportunities for adoption over older self-injection methods.
Diabetes-related complications will continue to drive demand for dialysis services, benefiting companies like DaVita and Fresenius Medical Care, though these providers remain heavily exposed to lower-paying U.S. government reimbursements compared with commercial insurers, the Moody's report said.
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