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The cost of Wegovy, Mounjaro and other GLP-1 agonist weight-loss drugs might be causing problems for U.S. employers, but rapidly rising obesity rates could also cause problems for employers.
The overall obesity rate could increase to 46.9% in 2035. That's up from 42.5% in 2022 and up from 19.3% in 1990, according to a paper published recently on the website of the Journal of the American Medical Association.
Nicole DeCleene and other researchers at the University of Washington used federal government survey obesity rate data for 1990 and 2022 to come up with forecasts for 2035.
The researchers broke the data down by sex and demographic group for each state.
The researchers found, for example, that obesity rates for non-Hispanic white men surveyed in 2022 ranged from 23.8% in the District of Columbia up to 47.2%, in West Virginia.
In 2035, the researchers predict, the obesity rate for non-Hispanic white men could rise to 28.5% in the District of Columbia and up to 52.7% in West Virginia.
In some states, the 2035 obesity rate for adults in all demographic groups could be over 55%.
"The patterns of obesity shown in the current analysis demonstrate significant health disparities that are likely to continue," the researchers warn.
What it means: If the weight increase trends that were apparent in 2022 continue, the percentage of employer health plan participants who are obese could be much higher in 2035.
That could lead to big increases in costs for treating diabetes, heart disease, cancer and other obesity-related conditions, and even more vigorous debate over how much and how quickly expensive new weight-loss drugs can help.
The age data: To create the 2035 state-level obesity forecasts, the researchers broke the national obesity survey data down by age group.
For non-Hispanic white women in the 40-44 age group, for example, the national obesity rate increased to 44% in 2022, from 18.5% in 1990, according to a table showing the national obesity data broken down by age.
For non-Hispanic white men in that age group, the national obesity rate rose to 44.6%, from 21.4%.
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