Job Advancement
The latest Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index is continuing an upward trend, rising by 0.4 points to 102.9, signaling that workers will likely remain in their jobs over the next six months. Additionally, the Retention Index measured a sharp decline in employees’ perceptions of the external job market.
Notably, the Market Opportunity Indicator dropped by 4.4 points, the steepest decline since the Index’s inception in 2023 – now hitting its lowest recorded level.
This decline reflects a growing sense of pessimism that U.S. employees hold about employment opportunities outside of their current organizations. Across four recorded indicators including culture, compensation, organizational confidence and job market opportunity, market sentiment not only experienced the greatest decline but is now the lowest-ranking sentiment influencing employees’ desire to stay or leave their current roles, according to the survey.
“Eagle Hill’s Job Market Opportunity Indicator plunge is more than just a data point: it marks the first time this indicator has declined for two consecutive periods, now at its lowest point since we launched the index,” said Melissa Jezior, president and chief executive officer of Eagle Hill Consulting. “This significant drop is echoed across almost every demographic, with baby boomers experiencing the most significant fall, followed by men.”
Although the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report found that hiring has remained solid throughout June, economists said they are cautious about growth and jobs looking ahead. According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, private sector job growth fell to the lowest level since October 2024 and nearly half of the 147,000 total new jobs added in June were in state and local government.
“This convergence highlights that worker confidence in job opportunities is dwindling for nearly all U.S. workers as uncertainty looms around the broader economic outlook and job threats like AI and automation,” Jezior continued. “Organizations, however, can leverage this drop in market confidence as a window of opportunity. While employees may feel less inclined to leave their current roles, they may also be more open to new roles or training.”
When looking across generations, the Index found that Gen Z workers are the most likely to stay in their current roles in the coming six months. The survey found that Gen Z has stronger confidence in their organizations’ futures and are more satisfied with their compensation relative to other generations. However, the Index found they are not necessarily more engaged.
Overall, however, employees of all ages remain pessimistic about job opportunities outside of their current organizations, looking ahead.
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