NEW YORK (AP) — Small investors, take note: The smart money isn't sure what to make of the economy, either.

Some market strategists say the recent drop in stock prices means the market is expecting a recession. Banks like Goldman Sachs and others have lowered their year-end forecasts for the Standard & Poor's 500 index. And Mark Zandi, the much-followed economist from Moody's, says the chance that the economy will fall into another recession is 40 percent.

Which is to say, there's also a better-than-even chance the U.S. economy will continue to grow, albeit slowly. That's the case Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and others have been making. This camp believes the economy will grow at a gradual pace now that gasoline prices have fallen, Japan's factories are mostly back up to speed after the earthquake and tsunami, and the debt ceiling debate is over for now.