It's the one piece of contrarian news lurking on the horizon that no investment manager – or investor – wants to hear.
But more and more analysts and economists are, not so quietly, issuing warnings that the bull market which began in 2009 – and has been widely vacated by many investors burned by the major crash of 2008, despite decent growth – may be poised for another large plunge.
Analysts with UBS AG are already predicting what they believe might be as much as a 30 percent drop in the S&P 500 by 2014, despite recent news that the index had reached a five-year high.
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As reported by Bloomberg, the company's analysts say that despite projected gains of 7.4 percent and reaching a figure as high as 1,570, a cyclical bear market is anticipated to follow, dropping to as low as 1,100 by 2014.
"The March 2009 cyclical bull market is moving into a mature stage and in this context, we see the S&P 500 and risk assets moving into a major top in 2013, followed by a new cyclical bear in 2014.
UBS AG's analysts say it all goes back to a long-term pattern established in 2000, and the anticipated slump will complete that overall trend – though another rally is anticipated to start in about two years from now.
Other observers have tracked the rises and falls and – lo and behold, it certainly looks as though another drop could be on its way.
J.P. Morgan Funds' Dr. David Kelly paints a slighly ominous picture in the company's Guide to the Markets, with a roller coaster-style plunge poised as a possibility, seen here in uniquely jarring graphic form.
Credit Suisse has also joined the chorus by explaining, again in an understated note, that its global equity strategists themselves have backed away from the stock market themselves.
"Many of our tactical indicators point to a consolidation phase in the equity markets, in the near-term," noted Credit Suisse's Andrew Garthwaite, in a research note issued earlier this the week.
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