CHARLESTON, S.C. — You could throw a tote bag at a trade show and hit at least half-a-dozen people who are certain what the next few years hold for those in the benefits business.

But Andrew Hiles at McKinsey & Co. has been crunching the health care numbers for the better part of two decades, so his take carries a little more weight than the guy in the lobby bar.

At the Benefitsfocus One Place event in Charleston, Hiles' session, "The future of health care is here (almost)," laid out his take on the five biggest trends shaping the (almost) future of health care.

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