When someone who has a virtual one-man financial media empire, is an author of best-selling mass market books on investing and commands a firm that employs hordes of advisers is asked to name the biggest question today's investors' have, you ought to pay attention to his answer, especially if you're a financial service provider,
A few weeks ago I interviewed Ric Edelman. When I asked him this question, he curtly answered, "Will I ever be able to retire?"
Of course, if you're like me, you immediately think of Linda Ronstadt's 1975 hit, "When Will I Be Loved." Only, instead of that phrase, the question "When Will I Retire?" replaces the title lyric. The song would sound like this:
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I've been cheated/
Been mistreated/
When will I retire?
You get the idea. My guess is a lot of retirement investors would cotton to these lyrics. Some may blame the financial industry for their woes, some may blame themselves. The truth likely lies somewhere in between.
If you look at the four factors that influence one's ability to retire, only one of them have anything to do with the financial services industry. The other three fall squarely – and solely – on shoulders of the individual investor. We've talked about these factors before. They come from a 2012 Wharton study. The three controlled by the investor – when investing starts, the annual contribution rate and when the investor retires – all play far greater importance than the one factor investors can't control – investment performance.
It is therefore relatively easy to determine when anyone will retire – assuming they know what their annual retirement expenses will be (granted, this number is a guessing game at best). Ultimately, the answer resides within the bowels of a rather complicated mathematical formula called the internal rate of return calculation. It is an iterative procedure, which means it's not one of those 2 + 2 = 4 kinda things. It's more like 2 + 2 = something between 3.8 and 4.2. Guess again and we'll narrow the answer. Guess once more and we'll narrow it further. In fact, you can guess forever and we'll never tell you the exact answer – we'll only get you closer to it. If it sounds like Zeno's Paradox, then I think you have the idea.
You'll also begin to understand why the average person asks themselves "Will I ever be able to retire?" For the typical worker, determining the probability of retirement is about as easy as explaining an infinite progression like Zeno's Paradox. But here's the thing. Mathematicians and philosophers can easily explain away Zeno's Paradox, sometimes even in words us layfolk understand.
In much the same way, skilled financial professionals can take the common investor through the labyrinth known as retirement planning and often make the paradox dissolve away. A series of recent studies show that retirement investors who are either financially literate or those who use financial advisors both tend to be more successful in terms of achieving their retirement goals. In other words, it's like understanding Zeno's Paradox because either: 1) You're smart enough to explain it yourself; or 2) You're smart enough to ask someone else who's smart enough to explain it.
So, the question may be "Will I be able to retire?" The answer is simple. Either you're smart enough to figure out the answer yourself, or you're smart enough to know who ask to help you figure out the answer.
Not that the answer's always good, for no single axiom exists that can solve everything in a pleasant way. For example, the Captain and Tennille's "Love Will Keep Us Together" was the chart dominating biggest hit of 1975, but, in the end, love didn't keep the two together and, as you might have seen in the tabloids, earlier this year they divorced.
Incidentally, because of the power of "Love Will Keep Us Together," "When Will I Be Loved" never reached more than #2 on Billboard's Hot 100, preventing Linda Ronstadt from scoring two consecutive number one hits (her previous release, "You're No Good," topped the charts). But "When Will I Be Loved" did top Billboard's Country & Western chart, becoming of first of several C&W chart toppers for the versatile singer.
And that's probably the best answer to the question "When will I be able to retire?" Sometimes, even with professional help, the answer will only be good enough (like a #2 finish). But, other times, the answer will reveal a new direction that you least expected (like starting a string of chart topping C&W hits).
In either case, rest assured. There is an answer.
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