"We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next 10. Don't let yourself be lulled into inaction." Bill Gates, from his book, "The Road Ahead."
This quote got me thinking about changes in the voluntary marketplace we can expect in the next 10 years. But first, let's reflect on the changes in the voluntary market over the past 10 years.
Ten years ago, enrollment was commonly conducted via some form of in-person meeting between employees and enrollers. Paper forms were common, and computer-based enrollment was usually done on a laptop provided by an insurer or enrollment company. Today, we've seen growth in online enrollment conducted on a self-service basis by employees on their own computer, or one provided by their employer. These online enrollments are supported by in-person meetings, call centers, webinars, online decision-assist tools, and other communications support packages.
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There is a relationship between the changes in enrollment processes and the trend toward group products and more group-type guaranteed issue enrollment. Online enrollment works best when the process is streamlined. Despite these improvements, we've seen average participation rates diminish.
There also has been gradual movement toward a "voluntary benefit portfolio" approach. Employers have broadened their voluntary package; yet another result of moving toward online enrollment. In an enrollment meeting, there is limited time to present each product. Online systems can make a broader array of products available, allowing an increased range of benefit choices to today's diverse group of employees. It is not unusual for employees to be able to purchase any of several insured plans.
What about the next 10 years, then? My guess is there will be a split in the way employers offer insurance benefit options. Today's market is based on benefits that are easily purchased during a limited open or annual open enrollment period.
Two forces may drive significant change here. One is the concept that customers want to purchase services their way, on their time schedule. Products that support this enrollment approach will require different pricing, underwriting, and administrative support.
The second force is increased interest in wellness incentives built around wearable technology. Group products can be offered 24/7/365 and can provide incentive payoffs, but only if there is a different level of underwriting than we see today. States may also decide to regulate the way discounts can be offered and administered.
Finally, the enrollment media (which has already transitioned online) will likely be some form of artificial intelligence interface. We'll know which benefits a person is eligible to purchase, their basic data and the product business rules. The enrollment process will record and transmit purchase elections to the insurance carrier and arrange bank account transfer of premiums as they are due from the employee's account.
Imagining the future is always a wide open game. Let me know your thoughts on this via email.
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