Andrew Biggs, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, may not think there’s an impending retirement crisis, but the Government Accounting Office begs to differ.

In a rebuttal in The Hill, Charles Jeszeck, director of the GAO, and Frank Todisco, chief actuary of the GAO, argue that in his Dec. 10 opinion piece on retirement issues, Biggs criticized two GAO reports and asserted that there is no looming retirement crisis.

But Jeszeck and Todisco say they stand by their reports, one issued in 2015 on the potential retirement security of near retirees and the other issued in 2017 on the status of the nation’s retirement system, and say that further, Biggs’ “narrow focus of the opinion piece does not address the significant questions about the future of the U.S. retirement system.”

The 2015 report, (GAO-15-419), write the authors, “found that 41 percent of households nearing retirement (defined as those ages 55 through 64) had no retirement savings such as a 401(k) or IRA, although some had a traditional pension. In addition, it “found that 27 percent of households nearing retirement had neither retirement savings nor a pension.”

While Biggs questioned whether these “non-savers” are really doing poorly in retirement, the authors say, “our analysis found that their other financial resources were low.” For the 27 percent with no savings and no pension, the report says, median financial assets were $9,000 and median home equity was about $53,000. “We did find that median retirement savings for households in the top 20 percent of the income distribution was $371,000, and we recognize that some households may do well in retirement,” they explain.

However, in the 2017 report on the U.S. retirement system (GAO-18-111SP), the authors say, they “describe the complex challenges that millions of Americans face as they look to retirement” and say that “the critical question for the nation is whether the U.S. retirement system as a whole presents significant cause for concern.” In the 2017 report, they say, the answer is yes.

“Typical” and “average” retiree data estimates don’t provide an accurate look at how retirees are faring, with a broad range of retirement security concerns being experienced by different segments of the population. The way the retirement system in the country has changed over the last several decades, they point out, as well as economic and societal trends—among them the transition from traditional pension plans to 401(k)s—could make it a lot harder for retirees in the future than it has been in the past.

They add, “Other researchers—including ones Biggs cites—point out that findings about income of current retirees cannot be easily extrapolated into the future.” And among the problems facing retirees today are lack of access to retirement plans among employees of small firms, among workers in certain industries and among low-income workers. A decline in marriage rates also contributes to retirement insecurity, with single older adults experiencing a poverty rate triple that of married couples.

Many work longer to try to supplement retirement savings, and certain segments of the population are far more likely to experience poverty in retirement: specifically, women, who are twice as likely as men to be living in poverty in retirement, and elderly blacks and Hispanics, with recent poverty rates of 18 and 20 percent, respectively—more than double those of elderly whites.

Problems surrounding multiemployer defined benefit plans; the projected insolvency of the PBGC multiemployer fund; the pending exhaustion of the Social Security trust funds; the problems faced by some public pension plans; and the gaps left by traditional defined benefit pensions all point to a systemic problem with the country’s retirement system, especially since those who do have a 401(k) or other defined contribution plan make poor investment choices and poor decisions about saving, withdrawals and in fact whether to participate at all.

The current 401(k) system, they write, “is one likely to produce ‘winners’ and ‘losers not captured by data on aggregate retirement assets, by a focus on an ‘average’ retiree and even on certain distributional analyses.”

They conclude, “The bottom line: Fundamental changes to the U.S. retirement system over the last 40 years, coupled with societal and economic trends, have raised challenges to achieving a secure retirement. There is a need to develop thoughtful and effective policies to ensure that all Americans have the prospect of a secure retirement.”

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GAO rebuts AEI scholar assertion that there&rsquo;s 'no retirement crisis'

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GAO rebuts AEI scholar assertion that there’s 'no retirement crisis'