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The recent resurgence in coronavirus cases in some areas of the U.S.—particularly the Sun Belt region—has prompted different reactions across the nation, with some opting for additional shutdowns, and others implementing mandatory face mask requirements and banning large gatherings.
While face masks have become a political issue, especially in some of the southern states experiencing a second wave of the virus, many are raising concerns about the economic impact that could come with additional lockdowns.
But, while the World Health Organization previously advised that there was "no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the mass population has any potential benefit," a recent report by Goldman Sachs Research argues that this mindset has since shifted—which could have broader economic benefits compared to renewed lockdowns.
According to the analysis, which included three different models, face masks are associated with "significantly better coronavirus outcomes."
"States that currently don't have a state-level mandate account for 40% of US total confirmed cases, 45% of US GDP, half of the population, and two-thirds of new infections," the report saysstates. "A national mandate would likely increase face mask usage meaningfully, especially in states such as Florida and Texas where masks remain largely voluntary to date," the report states."
The report's baseline estimate is that a national mandate could raise the percentage of people who wear masks by 15 percentage points (pp) and cut the daily growth rate of confirmed cases by 1.0pp to 0.6-0.7%.
Beyond the impact on the spread of the virus, the report goes on to suggest that a national face mask mandate could partially substitute for renewed lockdowns, which could significantly reduce the potential economic impact of the resurgence of COVID-19.
"If a face mask mandate meaningfully lowers coronavirus infections, it could be valuable not only from a public health perspective but also from an economic perspective because it could substitute for renewed lockdowns that would otherwise hit GDP," the report states.
Overall, the report found that a face mask mandate could potentially substitute for lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from GDP.
Sarah Tincher, based in Austin, is the managing editor of The National Law Journal and Corporate Counsel. Contact her at [email protected]. On Twitter: @sarahntincher
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