The Senate's plan to overhaul the U.S. health insurance systemwon't have a significant impact on the cost of premiums foremployee coverage, according to analysis released Monday by the Congressional Budget Office andthe Joint Committee on Taxation. Meanwhile, premiums for the 32million people in the nongroup market could increase as much as 30percent due to expanded coverage, but CBO says provisions in theSenate bill will be able to offset the cost to purchasers.

The average premium per person covered (including dependents)for new nongroup policies would be about 10 percent to 13 percenthigher in 2016 as compared to current law in that same year,according to CBO. But government subsidies would help with theincreased cost for about half those enrollees.

The cost for insurance could be about 60 percent less than if nolegislation were enacted.

Furthermore, "that increase would be partially offset by lowercosts for insurers, who would have access to a new pool of younger,healthier customers who might previously have gone withoutinsurance," writes Lori Montgomery of The Washington Post.

The result: Nongroup premiums on average would increase by about13 percent compared with current law, to $5,800 for individuals and$15,200 for family coverage."

According to projections, small- (50 or fewer employees) andlarge-group (50-plus employees) markets would make up 13 percentand 70 percent of the total insurance market, respectively.

In the small group market, CBO and JCT estimate that the changein the average premium per person resulting from the legislationcould range from an increase of 1 percent to a reduction of 2percent in 2016 (relative to current law). In the large groupmarket, the legislation would yield an average premium per personthat is zero to 3 percent lower in 2016 (relative to currentlaw).

The average premium per policy in the small group market wouldbe in the vicinity of $7,800 for single policies and $19,200 forfamily policies under the proposal, compared with about $7,800 and$19,300 under current law. In the large group market, averagepremiums would be roughly $7,300 for single policies and $20,100for family policies under the proposal, compared with about $7,400and $20,300 under current law.

The CBO says figures obtained do not factor the effects of thesmall business tax credit on the cost of purchasing insurance.Estimates also don't include the effects of the excise tax onhigh-premium insurance policies offered through employers.

CBO states only a relatively small share (about 12 percent) ofpeople with coverage in the small group market would benefit fromthat the small business tax credit in 2016. For those people, thecost of insurance under the proposal would be about 8 percent to 11percent lower, on average, compared with that cost under currentlaw.

An estimated 19 percent of workers with employment-basedcoverage would be affected by the excise tax in 2016. Thoseindividuals who kept their high-premium policies would pay a higherpremium than under current law, with the difference in premiumsroughly equal to the amount of the tax.

However, CBO and JCT estimate that "most people would avoid thecost of the excise tax by enrolling in plans that had lowerpremiums; those reductions would result from choosing plans thateither pay a smaller share of covered health care costs (whichwould reduce premiums directly as well as indirectly by leading toless use of covered medical services), manage benefits moretightly, or cover fewer services."

On balance, the average premium among the affected workers wouldbe about 9 percent to 12 percent less than under current law,according to CBO.