One-third of employers will drop health coverage according to a recent McKinsey survey. That's a staggering amount when you think about the actual numbers involved.

What would it to do our industry if one-third of the health plans just disappeared?

In 2009, the most recent year for which we have a full picture, there were 22,054 ERISA-qualified*, non-union health plans on the books. Ignoring the filings where the administrator clearly forgot how the number zero works, there were 37.1 million lives covered in those plans, $85 billion in premiums and, perhaps most critically, those plans represented $2 billion in fees and commissions to their brokers.

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Multiply those numbers by 30 percent.

What happens to our industry when the brokers, the cogs that keep the whole thing moving, are suddenly out more than half a billion dollars? And that's just scratching the surface: it's a drop in the bucket compared to the small plan market that's not covered by ERISA.

Here's a better question. If we could tell you which of your clients were planning to drop coverage as a result of the reform, would you want to know? Or is ignorance bliss?

*ERISA only requires filing by health plans with 100 or more participants. In this author's opinion, that's a major flaw. Write your federal representatives.

Get more: Coverage of McKinsey's employer health care survey

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