There's pretty widespread acknowledgement that, under Obamacare, many in the individual market will see premiums go up. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius has acknowledged this, as have other top Democrats.

This is what happens when insurance plans are required to cover Americans with potentially costly, pre-existing conditions: More sick people, who require additional care, gain coverage. While some will see their premiums decrease (older Americans, for example, due to limits on age rating), states are already seeing significant premium increases.

That's the case in most of the country — but not in New York State. There, the state is actually expecting some big changes likely to lower health premiums, according to a new analysis prepared for the New York Health Benefits Exchange.

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