A Duke University study based on feedback from 400 U.S. CFOs found that, among that small group, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is putting the brakes to hiring full-time employees.
Duke reported that "nearly half" of those who responded said the PPACA was motivating them to shift to the hiring of more part-time employees rather than finding the full-time workers they need.
The researchers said 20 percent of those responding said the PPACA will lead to fewer hires overall and 10 percent indicated they may lay off workers "in response to the law."
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More than 40 percent told Duke they would shift workers putting in more than 30 hours a week to less than 30 hours a week — 30 hours being the trigger point for benefits under the PPACA.
The nation's smallest employers, those with fewer than 50 workers, are not required under the law to offer insurance or contribute to their employees' health care costs.
"An unintended consequence of the Affordable Care Act will be a reduction in full-time employment growth in the United States," said John Graham, Duke Fuqua School of Business finance professor and director of the survey. "Companies plan to increase full-time employment by 1.4 percent in 2014, a rate of growth which is down from last quarter and unlikely to put a dent in the unemployment rate. CFOs indicate that full-time employment growth would be stronger in the absence of the ACA."
"I doubt the advocates of this legislation would have foretold the negative impact on employment," said Campbell R. Harvey, a professor of finance at Fuqua and a founding director of the survey. "The impact on the real economy is startling. Nearly one-third of firms may either terminate employees or hire fewer people in the future as a direct result of ACA."
Offering perspective on the question, a recent report from the nonpartisan Employee Benefit Research Institute said the trend toward more part-time workers and less workplace-based health insurance coverage began in the mid-2000s, before the passage of PPACA.
The percentage of workers employed part-time has been rising since 2007, increasing from 16.7 percent to 22.2 percent in 2011, the EBRI said.
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Dan Cook
Dan Cook is a journalist and communications consultant based in Portland, OR. During his journalism career he has been a reporter and editor for a variety of media companies, including American Lawyer Media, BusinessWeek, Newhouse Newspapers, Knight-Ridder, Time Inc., and Reuters. He specializes in health care and insurance related coverage for BenefitsPRO.
