There has been no shortage of reports — and anecdotal predictions — of skyrocketing premiums in the coming year due to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.
But researchers from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation on Monday argued those fears remain largely unfounded.
Instead, the researchers said for most places in the country, "any increase in premiums will instead probably be in line with the overall growth in health care costs, rather than the double-digit increases some have predicted."
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Earlier this month analysis from Avalere Health predicted double-digit premium increases because of Obamacare. And last month, a survey of brokers by Morgan Stanley health care analysts concluded that health premiums are rising so sharply that, in some states, increases are in the triple-digits. Brokers almost entirely blamed the premium inflation on PPACA.
Though researchers from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation did acknowledge a number of factors that would cause "substantial" premium increases — including underpricing in 2014, increases in health care costs and consumer pressure to broaden networks — they said the reasons will be overridden by other incentives, most notably those "for markets to be highly competitive."
Researchers compared data on premium costs in eight states around the country, and found that competition among carriers is strong, meaning they would be unlikely to raise their premiums for fear of losing customers.
However, their report did conclude that markets with limited competition — such as many rural areas — could see larger premiums increases.
Researchers also said that factors such as more young people purchasing plans through the exchanges and the slow growth rate overall in health care costs also will help hold down premiums.
"Based on plan participation in the marketplaces, we expect insurance companies to be eager to compete with health insurance plans in their markets to attract more customers," said Andy Hyman, who works on coverage issues at the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
"This high level of competition should keep premium increases in most markets no higher than we have seen in previous years, with marketplace plans remaining an affordable option for high-quality health coverage."
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