Premiums are going to go up; there’s almost no doubt about that.But the Obama administration is putting pressure on state insurancecommissioners to keep the rate hikes on their Affordable Care Act (ACA)marketplace plans as small as possible.

On Wednesday the U.s. Department of Health and Human Servicesannounced it would be distributing $22 million to state officialsto bolster their reviews of premium rates proposed by insurers. Theadministration hopes that cash-strapped insurance commissioners canuse the money to hire more employees or contract with experts toscrutinize premium plans submitted by insurers.

A recent study by the Kaiser Family Foundation estimated thatpremiums for the average ACA marketplace plan will rise11 percent next year. In some markets, however, the increases willlikely be much greater.

This isn’t the first time the administration has urged stateinsurance commissioners to flex their regulatory muscle to keeppremiums down. Last year, in the wake of big hikes proposed by anumber of major insurance plans in some states, the White Housetold state officials to regard the proposals with skepticism, andto demand that insurers justify the hikes with strong evidence ofhigh costs from claims.

The problem is, even if the administration contends that some ofthe proposed premium increases are “unreasonable,” there is a riskthat insurers that feel bullied will respond by pulling out of theACA marketplace entirely, as UnitedHealthcare has done in moststates. Other large insurers have indicated recently that theymight be forced to leave the marketplace if profits don’t getbetter.

Indeed, a spokeswoman for the trade organization America’sHealth Insurance Plans told The Hill that she hoped therate review process wasn’t becoming a “political football.”

If premiums go too high, many Obamacare customers, particularlyyoung, healthy ones, might drop their plans, threatening thesolvency of the system.

But there is also an immediate political risk that big premiumspose to the president’s party. Customers will be notified of thenew rates just a few days before Election Day, something that couldbe awkward for Hillary Clinton, who isrunning as a strong defender of the ACA.