We all know market timing doesn’t work, but what if we don’tknow when market timing is being a stealthy sneak? What if we’reusing it and don’t even realize it?

Related: 3 general concerns that thwart retirementsaving

This interesting dilemma came out of a series of interviews Irecently undertook with a variety of financial professionals on thesubject of using historic returns or economic forecasts whendetermining retirement projections (see “Should a Fiduciary Use Historic Returns or EconomicForecasts when Making Retirement Return Projections?”FiduciaryNews.com, July 6, 2015).

Related: The real reason for the 'retirementcrisis'

It seems a whole lot of people think it’s best to avoid usinghistoric data because “things are different this time.” I alwaysshiver when I hear that phrase. Do you? It’s almost as if, when Ihear it, I know things are about to regress to the mean.

We’ve been languishing in this economic malaise for almost nineyears now. It’s not the first time (anyone remember the 1970s?) andit probably won’t be the last, but why does it seem everyone hasforgotten how we get out of these doldrums? Rather than thinking ofa swinging pendulum, economic forecasters are doing the equivalentof saying the tree will grow to the sky. Only in this case, they’resaying the tree’s only going to be growing sidewise, not up.

Related: The free market is always one step aheadof regulators

Any student of behavioral psychology could explain this away inan instant. It’s called “recency,” and it deals with giving moreweight to recent events than is their due.

In the worst cases (like now), it lends itself too easily tounmerited extrapolation. In other words, the most likely outcomefor tomorrow is to be a repeat of today.

This is how lazy people make forecasts. In fact, they don’treally “make” them, merely extrapolate today’s trends into aninfinite tomorrow.

But if we’re learned anything from life it’s that changehappens, and it happens unexpectedly. That’s why no one believes inmarket timing. Since we can’t predict change, we can’t preciselypredict when the market is going to make its next move.

We may know in general terms what that next move might be, wejust don’t know when. Just ask anyone who’s been predicting (since2009) doom for bond prices as soon as rates go up. Sure, they’vegot the direction right, they’re just a tad off on theirtiming.

Which brings up to our point: If all the king’s economists andall the king’s portfolio managers can’t put this Humpty Dumptyeconomy together again, are we going to just sit here and believethem? Or are we going to remember that “change happens when youleast expect it?” And, if nothing else, doesn’t it seem like now isthe time we least expect change.

No one saw Trump coming, yet here he is. Likewise, no one seesthe next massive bull market coming, but what if it’s right aroundthe corner?

Are retirement savers prepared to take full advantage of it? Orare they staying “safe” because the economists are forecastingcontinued stagnation in our economy? And, doesn’t that sound a tadbit like marketing timing?

Market timing has a bad reputation, and deservedly so. We allshirk away from it the moment it rears its ugly head. But, what if,like Invasion of the Body Snatchers, it lurks among usdressed in another person’s skin? What if our everyday “commonsense” activities are leading down a path we wouldn’t knowinglytake? What if we’re playing from the “politics as usual” playbookin the year of the outsider?

The sin of market timing is hubris. People simply think they canoutsmart the market. They can’t.

I trust you’re not.