What's going to happen with Obamacare?

As President Obama enters the final months of his presidency, he is scrambling to preserve the signature domestic policy that he hopes will be a big part of his legacy.

The threat comes from insurers, whose inability to make big bucks on the Affordable Care Act marketplace has led many of them to ditch the state exchanges or seriously consider doing so in the future. Those who aren't leaving are demanding major premium increases in many cases, which may very well provoke customers to leave the exchanges, only further weakening the system.

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The administration is desperate to keep insurers in the marketplace and try to keep premiums as low as possible.

But that desperation puts insurers in a stronger negotiating position than they have been in previous years. In addition, contrary to some concerns before the ACA implementation, the ACA marketplace has not upended the traditional employer-based insurance market, meaning that large insurers don't have a major incentive to try to make their Obamacare business work.

So far, according to reports of a Monday meeting between large insurers and administration officials, carriers are once again demanding that the government crackdown on abuse of special enrollment periods.

Customers who don't enroll during the open enrollment period at the beginning of the year can qualify to enroll during other times of the year for a number of reasons, including a relocation or job loss. Insurers have claimed that people who have chosen not to sign up for insurance during the open enrollment period are cheating the system by waiting until they get sick or need a procedure to join a health plan.

The administration already targeted special enrollment periods this year, when it sharply reduced the number of eligible excuses to forgo open enrollment. But that apparently wasn't enough, say insurers.

Insurers are seeking other changes aimed at punishing bad customers. They are asking the administration to allow states to reduce the grace periods for unpaid premiums; the current period is 90 days. In addition, they want the feds to allow them to charge older customers more. Currently they can only charge older beneficiaries a maximum of three times more than younger ones.

Meanwhile, Republicans are relentlessly promoting the worst news out of the ACA marketplace in the hopes of discrediting the law. They are highlighting the big premium increases that have been announced in many states, as well as the departures of UnitedHealth, Aetna and Humana from a number of state marketplaces as evidence that the Obamacare system is doomed to failure.

But while the public might be convinced of the GOP's skepticism of the ACA, it remains far from clear what Republicans would actually do if Trump is elected president and the GOP retains control of Congress. There are millions of Americans who now hold ACA policies and will not be happy about losing them.

For that reason, the Obama administration is likely hoping to make some changes that can keep insurers happy enough so that they will work against any GOP-led effort to dismantle the ACA in the future. However, the administration can only do so much on its own and Republican leaders in Congress are currently uninterested in helping it free up funds or implement significant changes that might help insurers weather the storm. 

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