Typical Colorado residents who qualify for AffordableCare Act premium subsidies may pay an average of 11 percent lessfor exchange plan coverage in 2017 than they are paying thisyear.

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Agree Bly, an actuary at Tampa, Florida-based Wakely ConsultingGroup, made that prediction in a report included in arecent Connect for Health Colorado board meetingpacket.

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Connect for Health Colorado is Colorado's state-based ACAexchange.

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That exchange, like other ACA exchanges, is set to start theopen enrollment period for individual coverage Nov. 1.

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Related: One group fights single-payer in Colorado

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Some carriers have pulled out of the Colorado exchange, and theremaining carriers are increasing their premiums, according toBly's analysis.

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The full cost of Colorado exchange plan coverage is on track torise an average of about 24 percent in 2017, and the average numberof plans available to any given exchange user will fall to 48, from77 this year, Bly predicts.

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"For any given county, the number of plan offerings isdecreasing by between 15 and 38 plans," according to the analysis."No platinum plans are offered by any carrier on the exchange.

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Plan withdrawals could force 49,681 current exchange plan users,or about 32 percent of all Colorado exchange plan users, to changeplans in 2017, Bly says.

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Related: California, Colorado voters put health care reformon the ballot

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But the ACA premium tax credit subsidy, which helps Coloradoconsumers with household income from 100 percent to 400 percent ofthe federal poverty level pay their coverage premiums, is designedin such a way that it will increase to an average of $126 permember per month, from an average of $110 this year, Bly says.

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As a result, Bly says, the net amount of premiums averagesubsidized consumers actually pay could decrease an average of 11percent for the consumers who stay in the same plans.

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Average net premiums could rise 4 percent for the subsidizedconsumers with gold coverage, but net premiums could fall 5 percentfor people with silver coverage, and they could fall 22 percent forpeople with bronze coverage.

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Allison Bell

Allison Bell, ThinkAdvisor's insurance editor, previously was LifeHealthPro's health insurance editor. She has a bachelor's degree in economics from Washington University in St. Louis and a master's degree in journalism from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. She can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter at @Think_Allison.