In the worst year for U.S. health-care shares since the Great Recession, one stock stood out: UnitedHealth Group Inc.

For the U.S.'s biggest health insurer, just about everything is looking up, even as Obamacare is headed down. The stock is up 38 percent this year, neck and neck with Caterpillar Inc. for the top spot on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

"They've done better than anyone in 2016, with upside for 2017," said Ana Gupte, an analyst at Leerink Partners who rates the shares outperform.

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