For years, President Donald Trump has repeatedly said the Affordable Care Act is on the verge ofcollapse. As he puts it last week, the health care law is“exploding.”

Is Obamacare really about to fall apart? The short answer is no-- there are areas of the country where the ACA’s markets areworking well. In others, though, it’s struggling. Meanwhile, theTrump administration holds many of the levers that will determinewhether the Affordable Care Act lives or dies.

Obamacare, as the ACA is often called, has helped 20 millionpeople get insurance, mainly by expanding the Medicaid healthprogram for the poor and by creating markets for individualinsurance where many can buy plans. Medicaid is relatively immuneto collapse, since it’s funded almost entirely by state and federalgovernments, though some lawmakers would like to limit itsspending.

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