President Donald Trump would dramatically reduce the U.S.government’s role in society with $3.6 trillion in spending cutsover the next 10 years in a budget plan that shrinks the safety netfor the poor, recent college graduates and farmers.

Related: Trump to pitch deep cuts to anti-poverty programs,Medicaid

Trump’s proposal, to be released Tuesday, claims to balance thebudget within a decade. But it relies on a tax plan for which theadministration has provided precious little detail, the eliminationof programs backed by many Republican lawmakers, and heavy use ofaccounting gimmicks.

Trump’s fiscal 2018 budget proposal has already been declareddead on arrival by many of his Republican allies in Congress. Theplan would slash Medicaid payments, increase monthly student loanpayments and cut food stamps and agricultural subsidies, eachbacked by powerful constituencies. The administration isunbowed.

"We’re no longer going to measure compassion by the number ofprograms or the number of people on those programs," White Housebudget director Mick Mulvaney said. "We’re going to measurecompassion and success by the number of people we help get offthose programs and back in charge of their own lives."

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell has already said heexpects the Republican-led Congress to largely ignore the proposal,saying in an interview last week with Bloomberg News that earlyversions reflected priorities that "aren’t necessarily ours."

Campaign promises

The president’s proposal would fulfill his campaign promise ofleaving Social Security retirement benefits and Medicare untouchedwhile increasing national security spending. He’s also proposingsevere cuts to foreign aid and tighter eligibility for tax cutsthat benefit the working poor. He also seeks cuts in food stampsand disability insurance.

The plan calls for some new domestic spending, including $25billion over 10 years for nationwide paid parental leave -- a causechampioned by First Daughter Ivanka Trump -- and an expansion ofthe Pell Grant program for low-income students. The Department ofHomeland Security’s budget would increase $3 billion versus thefinal full year of President Barack Obama’s term, while thePentagon’s budget would see a $6 billion increase over that sametime.

The sheer ambition of the president’s plan, which would cutdomestic agencies by 10 percent in 2018 and by 40 percent in 2027,make the budget even less likely to gain traction on Capitol Hill,where lawmakers regularly flout the annual blueprint offered by theexecutive branch. But lawmakers are also likely to view some of theadministration’s accounting gimmicks with extreme skepticism.

Economic growth

The budget predicts a sweeping tax overhaul package that wouldstrengthen economic growth while providing few details of how thetax code would change. The one thing the administration has said ispeople and businesses will pay less; the budget asserts the amountof revenue collected won’t drop.

Neither of the White House’s assertions -- that Trump’s tax planwould be both revenue neutral and fuel budget coffers by $2trillion to $2.6 trillion through economic growth -- are realistic,said Maya MacGuineas, president of the bipartisan Committee for aResponsible Federal Budget.

She called the administration’s projections of three percentannual growth "really not possible -- they have impossibleassumptions of no changes in revenue and tax cuts." She added thatto see three or four percent growth "is nearly unprecedented. You’dneed productivity growth at a level you’ve never seen."

The scant detail in Trump’s tax proposal was likely to hindertax reform, she said. "They rolled out all the goodies but none ofthe offsets that would be necessary," MacGuineas said. "I’m not afan of surprises, and you have to set realistic expectations,because there are real trade-offs and choices."

The independent Tax Policy Center estimated that Trump’scampaign tax plan would add $7.2 trillion to the deficit. Economicgrowth spurred by Trump’s tax and regulation policy would add morethan $2 trillion in tax revenue, according to the budgetdocuments.

Accounting gimmicks

The budget also makes use of several other classic accountinggimmicks. It assumes that the wars in Afghanistan and the MiddleEast will cause future Congresses to allocate $593 billion in extrawar funding that won’t be needed and then claims to save thatamount by not spending it.

The Trump budget also assumes a $35 billion savings from changesto financial services industry regulations and a repeal of theDodd-Frank law’s orderly liquidation authority, under whichfinancial regulators are empowered to untangle and wind down thebiggest banks in a crisis. The nonpartisan Congressional BudgetOffice projected savings of $14.5 billion over a decade fromeliminating the authority.

Trump has promised a wall on the southern U.S. border thatMexico will eventually pay for, and the budget includes $2.6billion in 2018 – $1.6 billion for “new and replacement borderwall’’ in certain locations and about $1 billion for other itemsincluding aircraft, equipment and surveillance technology to deterillegal activity. Trump estimates the wall will cost $8 billion to$12 billion, but most experts say it will likely be moreexpensive.

While Trump is proposing to increase the defense budget, thepush for more high-priced weapons will wait another year.

The Trump budget requests 70 Lockheed Martin Corp. F-35s and 14Boeing Co. F/A-18E/F fighters -- the same quantities anticipated byObama’s administration for fiscal 2018. Similarly, theadministration is requesting eight new Navy ships, the numberproposed by Obama. With Trump pledging to increase the Navy fleetto 350 ships from 275 that can be deployed today, the Navy has saidit will need to request 12 new vessels in fiscal 2018 to start theacceleration.

Safety net

But while defense spending is set to see a boost, social safetynet programs are in the president’s crosshairs. Medicaid cuts of$610 billion would come alongside $250 billion savings -- partlyfueled by limiting expanded Medicaid -- from repealing Obamacare.Food stamps would be cut by $193 billion.

Federal workers would see much less generous retirement benefits under the budget.Eliminating cost-of-living adjustments for retirees would save $42billion while increasing required employee retirement contributionswould save $72 billion. And the budget would save $72 billionthrough cuts to Social Security Disability Insurance.

The administration has pitched its changes to student loan programs as beneficial tostudents. The budget would create a single repayment plan thatwould cap monthly payments at 12.5 percent of discretionary income,an increase from the 10 percent cap under some existing paymentplans.

But students would only need to repay their loans for 15 years,rather than 20, with the remainder wiped out by the federalgovernment. That change would cut the federal subsidy by $76billion.

Congressional prospects

Congress needs a “responsible guide” to finish appropriationsthis fall with some essential Democratic votes to avert agovernment shutdown, Terry Haines, managing directorof Evercore ISI, wrote in a note to clients. Haines saidCongress is likely to continue the stable spending pattern over thelast four years with small increases for defense and domesticprograms.

Democrats will be aggressive in fighting Trump’s budget and hisproposal to cut “incredibly important investments,” RepresentativeJohn Yarmuth, a Kentucky Democrat, told Bloomberg TV onTuesday.

House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy told CNBC on Tuesday thatTrump’s budget is “a serious proposal” and “a framework” forRepublicans to use in moving forward.

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