Let's lean into the data

Although predicting the overall trend is overwhelming, we have a much better chance of identifying and predicting specific areas of impact via these micro-trends. So, what are we seeing?

Preventive care visits are down. This includes wellness checks, eye exams, immunizations, and cancer screenings. According to our platform, based on data from over 2,500 organizations, April measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) immunization rates were about 34% lower than in April 2019, and year-over-year rates for meningococcal immunization were diminished by 73%. Mammography rates diminished by almost 90% in the same time period, and colonoscopies decreased by almost 95%.These delays are concerning given the importance of early detection and health management. Employers may see a spike in diagnosis and needed medical care for their employees once more regular health care activities are resumed. This backlog and surge in future demand could create a costly environment for employers — and a huge obstacle to the health care industry's capacity to provide care.
Elective surgeries are down. Both inpatient and outpatient surgeries have declined. A study conducted by Strata Decision Technology on year-over-year changes to hospital revenue during late March to early April shows a 99% decrease in primary knee replacements — and a 79% decrease for primary hip replacements.Although some procedures may be canceled altogether, there will likely be significant delays in rescheduling procedures and renewed postponement where COVID-19 case numbers are still high. Therefore, it's probable that the year-end impact will be an overall decrease in elective procedures in 2020 as compared with prior years — with the magnitude of the reduction likely varying by geographic area.
There are delays in acute and chronic care. The COVID-19 crisis has also caused an increase in gaps in care related to chronic conditions, meaning instances where people aren't adhering to their normal routine of medications, physician visits, or regular tests and screenings. Data gathered from our platform shows that in April 2020 ER visits for chest pain were 35% lower than in April 2019, while abdominal pain visits were about 47% lower.These gaps in chronic care may require targeted communication strategies, telehealth opportunities, or disease-management solutions to help your members get back on track. It may also be time to remind your employees about symptoms of life-threatening conditions (like chest pain) that require immediate medical attention.
Delays in cancer care. Our data also shows that radiation therapy rates experienced a reduction of about 7% in April and about 13% in May compared with the prior year. Radiation and chemotherapy, which also experienced a decline, are essential. By looking at micro-trends we can see that these therapies have been impacted less than other health care services, but will still need to be watched as a potential downstream issue.
Mental health needs are skyrocketing. Mental health issues are historically common and costly for employers. It's no surprise that employees' mental health needs have gone up since the start of the pandemic — more than 9 in 10 employees now report some level of anxiety, with 55% indicating a moderate or high degree of anxiety. The new normal will need to take into account the demand and expenditure of these services compared with previous years and come up with a new approach to employee care.

What does this mean for benefit leaders?

With the significant decrease in utilization for essential health care services, it can be assumed that this reduction in current utilization is going to lead to a future influx of demand for care. This backlog of needed services will grow exponentially as current delays may cause increased complications. It's a cycle, and the health care system may struggle to keep up leading to further delays in care.

Instant Insights /

What health care micro-trends tell us about our new normal

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