Assuming that the individual mandate is stricken, and found severable, there would be little direct effect on the health insurance market outside of the individual market.
On November 10, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in California v Texas, the latest challenge to the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act ("ACA"). The positions of the parties to the case have changed throughout its path to the Supreme Court, but, as argued, there are three basic questions to be answered:
|- Do the plaintiffs in this case have the right to bring the lawsuit at all, or do they lack "standing"?
- Is the individual mandate for each individual to purchase health insurance a valid use of Congress' power to tax if Congress removes the tax to be paid?
- If the answer to the first question is "no", can the remainder of the law survive (i.e., is the individual mandate "severable").
Because of the sweeping impact of the ACA, the case has the potential to upset the entire health insurance industry. Professionals should be prepared for substantial changes. However, it is probably (hopefully?) more likely that these changes will occur incrementally.
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