Because of their small majority in the House and possible minority status in the Senate, party leaders will have to focus on issues that satisfy and excite their core constituents on the one hand, but that are not immediately rejected by Republicans on the other. Issues that allow legislators lots of room for negotiations will prove ideal, especially ones with broad public support. Everyone in Congress knows that, regardless of the outcome of the runoff elections in Georgia, the next two years will require cooperation and negotiation for anything to get done, and that is why it would not be surprising to see minimum wage and paid leave legislation play a starring role in the legislative agenda of the 117th Congress.

Minimum wage

Earlier in the 116th Congress, signs of compromise were evident when the House considered the Raise the Wage Act (H.R. 582), legislation that would have established a federal minimum wage rate of $15 per hour. Negotiations between Republicans and Democrats led to the increase being spread out over seven years instead of the originally proposed six. While other concessions were also made, ultimately they were not enough to persuade Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to bring the bill to a vote in the Senate.

So, what has changed since the election? For one thing, the Democratic majority in the House will be significantly smaller this Congress, which means any legislation that passes the House will need to be crafted very carefully. It will certainly take more negotiations and concessions to pass a minimum wage bill this Congress.

As for the Senate, we do not yet know which party will control the upper chamber come January 20. What we do know is that no matter who the Senate majority leader is, he/she will be working with a very small majority. A handful of Republican and Democratic senators may be willing to buck their parties' leadership on an issue as important as the minimum wage—especially if the bill that arrives in the Senate is more moderate than the earlier version from the 116th Congress.

Finally, one of the main reasons why H.R. 582 died in the Senate without receiving a vote was because President Donald Trump announced he would veto the bill. We know that President-Elect Biden would sign a $15 an hour federal minimum wage bill into law, and while that does not mean that a Republican-controlled Senate would definitely pass the legislation, it is much harder to ignore a bill knowing that the President supports it.

Paid leave

In response to years of inaction by Congress with regard to a paid federal sick leave plan, states and localities decided they were not going to wait any longer. Today, with 14 states and several more localities with some form of paid leave ordinances in place, many industries are thinking that life would be much easier with the enactment of a federal paid leave law that preempts state and local measures. However, much like minimum wage, for a federal paid leave bill to have any chance of passage, it must originate from several rounds of negotiations with concessions by both political parties.

Democrats are well aware that historically the political party of the incumbent President often suffers at the polls during the midterm elections. While House Democrats originally thought they were going to have a nice buffer going into the 2022 elections, this is not the case. Republicans now find themselves with a very realistic chance of winning back the House. In the Senate, regardless of which party holds the majority in 2020, control of the upper chamber will be up for grabs in 2022. Both sides will have vulnerable seats to defend—for the Republicans in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Wisconsin, and for the Democrats in Nevada, New Hampshire, and Arizona. Plus, a surprise retirement (or two) will likely shake things up too.

Finally, minimum wage and paid leave are two policy issues that hit home for millions of families being courted by Republicans and Democrats alike. Do Republicans want to campaign in the suburbs having to defend why they voted against a reasonable federal paid leave law? Do Democrats want to have to explain that the reason why a $15 minimum wage bill was not enacted was because they refused to offer tax credits to businesses to help offset the added expense?

While each party strives to control the White House and Congress, if history is any indication, usually the party in charge is the loser at the polls. People dig in, some get too greedy with their asks, and others refuse to compromise. If leaders take that approach in the 117th Congress, nothing will happen for the next two years. However, if policymakers are willing to negotiate, compromise, and vote for bills they can live with, lawmakers will have compelling victories to share on the campaign trail in 2022.

Toby Malara, Esq., is a government affairs counsel at the American Staffing Association. He advises on all staffing-related legislation and regulation, including the Affordable Care Act, immigration/I-9, paid sick leave, sales tax and per diem issues. He also directs the association's political activities through its political action committee, StaffingPAC.

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