Medicaid expansion in all 14 states would lead to 4.5 million fewer people uninsured and an increase in Medicaid program enrollment by 6.7 million in 2022.
Expanding Medicaid eligibility in states that have not done so could spur job growth as well as increase coverage, according to a new report.
"This study shows that with the additional federal support in the American Rescue Plan, Medicaid expansion in the remaining 14 states could revive state economies and create more than one million new jobs, in addition to helping millions of low-income Americans gain health insurance," said Leighton Ku, Ph.D., director of the Center for Health Policy Research at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health.
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Researchers at the Milken Institute collaborated with the Commonwealth Fund on the study. The rescue plan increases federal funding for states that adopt the ACA Medicaid expansion by paying 90% of the cost of covering newly eligible adults, with an additional 5% "bonus" federal match on existing state Medicaid expenditures for two years. As of May, 14 states — Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Wisconsin and Wyoming — still have not expanded the program. Missouri and Oklahoma have passed ballot initiatives to begin expansions, but it is unclear if Missouri will move forward.
The study identified several potential benefits of expanded coverage.
Job growth. Expanding Medicaid in the 14 states would produce more than one million new jobs in 2022. While much of the national employment growth would be in health care, more than half would occur in other sectors, such as construction, retail, finance, insurance and other industries.
Across the 14 states, employment would rise by 837,000 jobs in 2022, including 299,000 in Texas, 135,000 in Florida, 83,000 in North Carolina, 64,000 in Georgia, and 50,000 in Missouri. An additional 209,000 jobs would be created across the country as economic activity ripples through other states.
Health insurance gains. Medicaid expansion in all 14 states would lead to 4.5 million fewer people uninsured and an increase in Medicaid program enrollment by 6.7 million in 2022. The top five increases in Medicaid enrollment would be in Texas (1.7 million), Florida (1.5 million), Georgia (680,000), North Carolina (620,000) and Missouri (400,000). The federal government would cover almost all of the new health care costs.
Higher state and local tax revenues. Expanding Medicaid would increase federal revenue to the 14 states by $49 billion in 2022 and lead to higher state and local tax revenues. This is because the additional federal Medicaid revenue stimulates economic activity and ultimately leads to higher state and local tax revenue.
"States that have elected not to expand Medicaid are leaving millions of the poorest people in the country without access to affordable health insurance," said Dr. David Blumenthal, president of the Commonwealth Fund. "The American Rescue Plan is a fresh opportunity not only to finally extend coverage to more than four million people but to promote job and economic growth in the wake of one of the deepest recessions in generations."
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Alan Goforth
Alan Goforth is a freelance writer in suburban Kansas City. In addition to freelancing for several publications, he has written a dozen books about sports and other topics.
