The U.S. population is projected to grow by 10.6% by 2034, with a projected 42.4% increase in those aged 65 and above, leading to greater demand for physician specialties that predominantly care for older Americans.
It may become increasingly difficult to find primary and secondary care over the next decade. The United States could see a shortage of between 37,800 and 124,000 physicians by 2034, according to a new study from the Association of American Medical Colleges.
"The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted many of the deepest disparities in health and access to health-care services, and exposed vulnerabilities in the health care system," said Dr. David J. Skorton, president and CEO of the association. "The pandemic also has underscored the vital role that physicians and other health care providers play in our nation's health care infrastructure and the need to ensure we have enough physicians to meet America's needs."
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Increasing clinician burnout, which has been intensified by the pandemic, could cause doctors and other health workers to cut back their hours or accelerate their plans for retirement, Skorton recently testified before Congress. In other key findings:
Population growth. The U.S. population is projected to grow by 10.6% by 2034, from about 328 million to 363 million, with a projected 42.4% increase in those aged 65 and above. Therefore, demand for physician specialties that predominantly care for older Americans will continue to increase.
Accelerated retirements. More than two in five active physicians in the United States. will be 65 or older within the next decade. Their retirement decisions will dramatically affect the magnitude of national workforce shortages. Additionally, 40% of the country's practicing physicians felt burned out at least once a week before the COVID-19 crisis began, which could cause doctors and other health professionals to reduce their hours or retire sooner.
Disparities in care. If marginalized minority populations, people living in rural communities and people without health insurance had the same health-care use patterns as populations with fewer barriers to access, up to an additional 180,400 physicians would be needed now.
COVID-19 has put a spotlight on disparities in health and access to care among underserved populations, and this analysis underscores the systematic differences in health care services by insured and uninsured individuals, individuals in urban and rural locations, and individuals of differing races and ethnicities.
"Addressing the physician shortage requires a multipronged solution that starts with educating and training enough physicians to meet America's needs and includes improving access to care, diversifying the physician workforce and ensuring our nation is prepared to address current and future public health crises," Skorton said. "Now more than ever, the nation must make a long-term investment in the health-care workforce. The time to act is now."
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Alan Goforth
Alan Goforth is a freelance writer in suburban Kansas City. In addition to freelancing for several publications, he has written a dozen books about sports and other topics.
