When your business model depends on financing, of course you focus on what decisions the Federal Reserve will make about raising interest rates. The benchmark federal funds rate, which is a target range that only directly affects how banks lend to one another, is massively influential. Any doubt, just look at the current going rate for financing in commercial real estate.

But it's important not to forget other information. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco issued an economic letter on Monday, noting that monetary policy is tighter than the federal funds rate.

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