Social Security COLA graphic
While the actual 2026 Social Security cost-of-living (COLA) increase for retired workers won’t be announced until October, forecasters expect President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcements to lead to higher inflation, which could mean COLA predictions will rise later this year.
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), one of the nation’s largest nonpartisan retiree groups, is predicting a 2.3% increase for 2026 – a modest decrease from the 2.5% raise in 2025, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than last month’s prediction.
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“Placing broad-based tariffs on goods from numerous countries could have a profoundly negative impact on the daily lives of seniors, including the costs of drugs and medical equipment that many seniors rely on,” said TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton. “It is also highly likely that import taxes will keep food prices high, increase auto insurance costs, and contribute to higher inflation, among other effects.”
While the “TSCL supports President Trump’s goals of returning manufacturing and strategic production to American shores, we can’t accept the short-term consequences for seniors,” she said. “We call on the administration to immediately make exceptions to the tariffs for drugs, medical equipment, and essential everyday goods that many seniors already struggle to afford.”
The Journal of the American Medical Association has estimated that the import taxes could affect as many as 400 drug products from Canada alone.
The COLA adjustment helps the 67 million Social Security beneficiaries keep up with inflation. The average Social Security check is about $1,976 a month, according to the Social Security Administration.
One key indicator for the TSCL COLA prediction is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported that the CPI-W increased 2.2% percent over the last 12 months, down from 3.0% in January and 2.7% in February.
Independent Social Security and Medicare analyst Mary Johnson estimates the COLA for 2026 may be 2.2%, lower than the TSCL. “Higher sticky consumer prices, home repairs, changes in health are forcing older consumers to spend more from savings at a faster rate, at the same time extreme stock market volatility pummels the value of retirement account holdings,” said Johnson.
Related: Social Security’s COLA could drop in 2026, as new forecast announced
Along with most economists, “TSCL expects the new tariffs to lead to higher inflation,” said Benton. “Our COLA model will likely reflect that in coming months as the CPI-W and other economic indicators respond to the new import tax policies.”
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Lynn Cavanaugh
Lynn Varacalli Cavanaugh is Senior Editor, Retirement at BenefitsPRO. Prior, she was editor-in-chief of the What's New in Benefits & Compensation newsletter. She has worked for major firms in the employee benefits space, Vanguard and Willis Towers Watson, as well as top media companies, including Condé Nast and American Media.
