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While the actual 2026 Social Security cost-of-living (COLA) increase for retired workers won’t be announced until October, the Senior Citizens League (TSCL), as well as independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson, are both predicting the COLA increase will be 2.5% for 2026.
Based on the latest inflation data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), projections for the 2026 COLA increased just slightly from the 2.4% predictions in May.
This estimate may change, depending on the impact of the Trump administration tariffs on consumer goods moving forward. "This estimate may rise with four more months of data still to come in before the 2026 COLA will be announced in October," Johnson said.
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“Seniors should be concerned as inflation continues to tick upward,” said TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton. “TSCL’s research shows that there’s a serious disconnect between the inflation the government reports and the inflation that seniors experience every day. If the government tells us that prices are rising faster, it’s likely that seniors are already feeling the crunch.”
TSCL, a nonpartisan seniors group, issues a new prediction of the next Social Security COLA monthly using its statistical model, which incorporates the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the national unemployment rate. The model’s predictions update every month, adjusting in response to economic conditions.
However, TSCL noted that the BLS faces unprecedented challenges collecting data for the price index used to calculate the COLA due to a hiring freeze at the agency. In April, the agency said it had used a less accurate method for estimating prices more than usual, due to a shortage of workers, and it has stopped collecting consumer inflation data in three cities.
Related: Social Security’s 2026 COLA could be lowest since 2021, as projection announced
The COLA adjustment helps the 67 million Social Security beneficiaries keep up with inflation. For the first time in the Social Security Administration history, the average retiree monthly benefit check is expected to exceed $2,000 in June.
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Lynn Cavanaugh
Lynn Varacalli Cavanaugh is Senior Editor, Retirement at BenefitsPRO. Prior, she was editor-in-chief of the What's New in Benefits & Compensation newsletter. She has worked for major firms in the employee benefits space, Vanguard and Willis Towers Watson, as well as top media companies, including Condé Nast and American Media.
