Social Security retirement fund still on track to run dry in 2032

The OASI Trust Fund reserves are projected to become depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, with 78% of benefits payable at that time. The DI Trust Fund reserves are projected to remain positive throughout the 75-year projection period.

Marcia Mantell, founder and president of Mantell Retirement Consulting, told ThinkAdvisor this is "definitely better news" than she thought it would be.

"The fertility, immigration and One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) changes have a negative projected effect on Social Security's financial status, while the near-term economic changes have a positive effect," she said.

Ray R. Harris, a registered Social Security analyst and the founder of Social Security Claiming Experts, told ThinkAdvisor that while the depletion date projection remains the same, it was important to note the report also shows the long-term financing challenge has grown, as the 75-year actuarial deficit has increased from 3.82% to 4.42% of taxable payroll.

"Consumers should not interpret this report as a reason to rush into claiming Social Security benefits early," he said. "For many retirees, claiming at age 62 can permanently reduce benefits by roughly 30%, which is a far greater reduction than the projected shortfall discussed in the Trustees Report."

Mantell said it was important to remember that the projected date for the "trust fund depletion" means that the reserve account, also known as the "savings account" or surplus account, will be fully used up.

"At that time, retirees will still get benefits paid," she said. "Their monthly deposits will just be less than 100% of the benefits they are due.

"The program cannot go bankrupt. It has always been and continues to be funded by payroll taxes from American workers," she said.

Even if Congress takes no action, Harris said, payroll tax revenue would continue to fund a substantial majority of promised benefits.

"The real policy question is not whether benefits disappear, but how lawmakers choose to close the funding gap," he said. "In the past, regardless of which party is in power, Congress waits until the last minute and fixes it with a variety of tools."

As someone who works directly with individuals making claiming decisions, Harris said he finds that people are often more concerned about whether Social Security will exist than whether they are maximizing the benefits available to them.

"For many households, a claiming mistake can have a larger financial impact than the long-term funding issues highlighted in the report," he said.

Jason Fichtner, executive director of the LIMRA Retirement Income Institute, wrote on LinkedIn that the report again confirms that though Social Security faces a serious and worsening financing shortfall, policymakers continue to delay action, "despite the clear warning signs and the importance of the program to millions of Americans."

"Meaningful reform will require policymakers to move beyond political rhetoric and engage in the difficult but necessary work of putting Social Security on a sustainable path," he wrote. "Failing to act is itself a choice. ... That outcome would harm the very people the program is meant to protect. The only responsible path forward is a bipartisan one, grounded in fiscal reality and focused on strengthening the program for current and future beneficiaries."

The Social Security Board of Trustees report also found that:

• The reserves of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds declined by $160 billion in 2025 to $2.56 trillion.
• The annual cost of the program is projected to exceed annual income in 2026 and remain higher throughout the 75-year projection period. Total cost began to be higher than total income in 2021. Social Security's cost has exceeded its non-interest income since 2010.
• Total income, including interest, to the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds amounted to $1.45 trillion in 2025. ($1.32 trillion from net payroll tax contributions, $58 billion from income taxation of benefits, and $69 billion in interest)
• Total expenditures from the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds amounted to $1.61 trillion in 2025.
• Social Security paid benefits of $1.60 trillion in calendar year 2025. There were 70 million beneficiaries at the end of the calendar year.
• During 2025, an estimated 185 million people had earnings covered by Social Security and paid payroll taxes.
• The cost of $7 billion to administer the Social Security program in 2025 was 0.4% of total expenditures.

The combined trust fund reserves earned interest at an effective annual rate of 2.6% in 2025.

The Board of Trustees consists of four members who serve by virtue of their positions with the federal government: Scott Bessent, Treasury secretary and managing trustee; Frank J. Bisignano, Social Security commissioner; Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Health and Human Services secretary; and Keith E. Sonderling, acting Labor secretary. The two public trustee positions are currently vacant.