Some analysts predict that a large number of employers willterminate their health plans in 2014 and simply pay the annualpenalty of $2,000 per employee. After all, they argue, employers'health plan costs will only continue to rise, and the fines will berelatively modest compared to what it will cost to continueproviding coverage.

Additionally, there will be exchanges where insurers must accepteveryone, so employers who terminate their plans will not bebanishing their less-healthy employees to the ranks of theuninsured. All of this, they project, will make the prospect ofgetting out of the health insurance game irresistible to manyemployers. But despite rising costs, employers  should(and will) retain health care plans after 2013.

Most importantly, terminating coverage would prevent an employerfrom ever realizing the total value of its workforce's health. Thetrue costs of dropping coverage will therefore outweigh thebenefits. Employers should decide now whether they plan to retainor drop coverage in 2014, because their decision will have serious,long-term business implications.