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With its major provisions going into effect, 2014 has been a pivotal year for the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. And talk is only growing louder over how 2015 premiums will look. But the major test for Obamacare will come in 2017, researchers say — and from the looks of it, it will fail.

That’s the major gist of what Stephen Parente, a University of Minnesota health economist, and Michael Ramlet, a professor at the same institution, spell out in a white paper after analyzing 2014 enrollment reports and using a micro-simulation model to predict the trajectory of health plan prices and enrollment.

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